Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

U.S Congress and Cameron

The all party Congressional leaders of the Irish American community have, it is reported, written to David Cameron expressing their hope that he will exercise all possible influence over his new dodgy friends in the Ulster Unionist Party to ensure that they vote for the transfer of police powers at Stormont tomorrow. The U.S., which is very disturbed by this electoral pact of Cameron’s, believes that it is imperative that the vote to proceed is unanimous to send an unambiguous message to extremists. They note the UUP has not yet made up its mind.

I have before said I cannot believe that the Tory high command can have committed such an error of judgement as to start a political affair with these provocative and blinkered throwbacks to sectarian intolerance, but having done so, it falls to it, on top of everything else, to make quite sure the UUP stand in line with Sinn Fein and the DUP.

We need to remember that without the Ulster Unionists, Ireland would be one country, there would have been no bombings and Catholics and Protestants would have been living happily side by side as they do everywhere else in the civilised world, including in England, Scotland and Wales. Heath dumped the Unionists when he saw they were beyond the pale, Thatcher kept her distance and Major broke free and began the dialogue with the IRA that led to the Peace Process, brought to fruition by Blair before he left the rails. The decent centre of British politics is repelled by bigotry and it is from this centre that the Tories need to gain votes to win.

If the UUP do out of pique because they are a spent force or out of spite or whatever, vote No tomorrow Cameron needs to call Sir Reg Empey, their leader, to tell him that the electoral pact with his party has been torn up and thrown in the bin.

Opinion Polls

Looking at these over the weekend and studying independent analysis of them, suggests that the big issues of last week, Ashcroft, Brown at Chilcot etc., have had little effect on voting intentions. The Conservatives remain ahead by as little as 2% to as much as 8% depending on the poll, Labour is holding its own and Lib Dems are trailing. This tells us voters are treading water for the moment waiting to see what comes up in the real campaign when the date is announced. The race has tightened in this preparation stage and the result is not a foregone conclusion.

An outright Labour victory was never really on the cards unless the Tories have so big a prang they cannot get their show back on the credibility road. Nevertheless their vehicle is scratched and dented. Labour have done much better than expected certainly, but this may be their high water mark. There is not a lot of good news scheduled between now and polling day.

Recovery figures for the First Quarter may show a stall because of the weather and the rise in VAT. Darling has to bring in a budget which is likely to please nobody. If it is a give away it will not be believed and the markets will go to pot. If it is draconian and really hammers the deficit Labour voters will recoil. If it does neither the one nor the other everyone will have a go. Vince Cable will shine whatever Darling does. This will be when the Lib Dems get back in the race. When those TV debates go out into every home and bar in the land the Lib Dems will be the big winners if Clegg keeps his cool.

To prepare for all this all three party leaders have to prepare themselves and their Parties have to prepare sharp and targeted campaigns. The Tories have most to lose. They have lost the most so far. Extra care is need here if expectations are to be fulfilled and the prangs and wobbles are to be seen as adventures on the road to power and not something more depressing. Cameron has announced a sort of war cabinet of key players, five I believe. None is from an ethnic minority nor is  even one a woman. This is not very good and  appears to reveal a rather narrow base of talent or, worse, endemic cronyism at the top. A clever move, worth a few marginals, would be to give Ken the Treasury brief ( he sounds as if he has got it already) and give George the Business brief to shadow Labour’s Blackadder, Mandleson. Ken is wasted on this portfolio an Mandleson will be more in the backroom during the campaign because he is not being elected and George is universally regarded as the weak link as Shadow Chancellor.

Gordon just has to keep his team in line and go on being indomitable. He should be kind to Darling, slap down Ed Balls, watch the sly Milliband (David) and keep Blackadder sweet. He cannot win outright but he can stop Cameron doing so. That is his best hope. As for the Lib Dems thay need to keep their powdwer dry, drill their troops and hide in the woods. Like the Prussians at Waterloo they can then burst out of the trees at the decisive moment and seize the critical balance. It is not called the balance of power for nothing.