Election Latest
There is a definite shift upwards, but only slight, in the Tory lead since the budget. It is not enough on an average, spread among both polls and seats, to give Cameron a majority. He would have twenty more seats than Brown and could form a government with the Lib Dems. He could try go it alone but with thirty seats short of a majority, it would be hardly the kind of stable government we need right now.
These polls do not yet show how the promise to halt the rise in NI contributions for middle earners has been received by voters. It may edge the Tories further forward, but if voters believe opposition cries that the money is not there, or should be used to reduce the deficit, it will not help. It will be a useful test of public sensitivities to see what happens. The Tories will hope that even if not dramatic in itself, it shows they are on the right path. If voters fear even bigger cuts in public services affecting them, it could fail and become yet another muddle.
Last night we saw the debate of the three potential Chancellors. None shone sufficiently to dazzle, all came through without disaster. Cable won the debate by quite a margin and is the clear choice of the majority of bloggers. It will be interesting to see if this produces a Lib Dem surge. If that happens both Labour and the Tories will be at sea without a compass. The election will be wide open.