Iraq Elections
It really is a dreadful thing that over thirty people have been killed in attacks on polling day, but it is also a wonderful thing that undeterred by the risk many millions of Iraqis have braved the violence to cast their votes. It is not right to celebrate this as some kind of justification for the war.
The problems now facing Iraq are much more to do with the gross failure to plan how to win the peace by the Bush administration and the supine weakness of the Blair Government to vigorously protest when they saw disaster looming. The vindictive decision to exclude Ba’ath Party from absolutely everything has left a legacy of disaffection among the Sunni minority, previously in the ascendant. Time will tell how things will progress, predictions are not easy in this ravaged environment.
There is however one. If the Shias and Sunnis do not reach an understanding that restores Sunni dignity and participation, civil war will break out when the Americans leave. Syria and Jordan will back the Sunnis. Iran will back the Shias, the majority. The Kurds will break away to the north and increase tension in the disputed border are with Turkey, which may then become destabilised. There could be a lot of trouble ahead.