Opinion Polls
Looking at these over the weekend and studying independent analysis of them, suggests that the big issues of last week, Ashcroft, Brown at Chilcot etc., have had little effect on voting intentions. The Conservatives remain ahead by as little as 2% to as much as 8% depending on the poll, Labour is holding its own and Lib Dems are trailing. This tells us voters are treading water for the moment waiting to see what comes up in the real campaign when the date is announced. The race has tightened in this preparation stage and the result is not a foregone conclusion.
An outright Labour victory was never really on the cards unless the Tories have so big a prang they cannot get their show back on the credibility road. Nevertheless their vehicle is scratched and dented. Labour have done much better than expected certainly, but this may be their high water mark. There is not a lot of good news scheduled between now and polling day.
Recovery figures for the First Quarter may show a stall because of the weather and the rise in VAT. Darling has to bring in a budget which is likely to please nobody. If it is a give away it will not be believed and the markets will go to pot. If it is draconian and really hammers the deficit Labour voters will recoil. If it does neither the one nor the other everyone will have a go. Vince Cable will shine whatever Darling does. This will be when the Lib Dems get back in the race. When those TV debates go out into every home and bar in the land the Lib Dems will be the big winners if Clegg keeps his cool.
To prepare for all this all three party leaders have to prepare themselves and their Parties have to prepare sharp and targeted campaigns. The Tories have most to lose. They have lost the most so far. Extra care is need here if expectations are to be fulfilled and the prangs and wobbles are to be seen as adventures on the road to power and not something more depressing. Cameron has announced a sort of war cabinet of key players, five I believe. None is from an ethnic minority nor is even one a woman. This is not very good and appears to reveal a rather narrow base of talent or, worse, endemic cronyism at the top. A clever move, worth a few marginals, would be to give Ken the Treasury brief ( he sounds as if he has got it already) and give George the Business brief to shadow Labour’s Blackadder, Mandleson. Ken is wasted on this portfolio an Mandleson will be more in the backroom during the campaign because he is not being elected and George is universally regarded as the weak link as Shadow Chancellor.
Gordon just has to keep his team in line and go on being indomitable. He should be kind to Darling, slap down Ed Balls, watch the sly Milliband (David) and keep Blackadder sweet. He cannot win outright but he can stop Cameron doing so. That is his best hope. As for the Lib Dems thay need to keep their powdwer dry, drill their troops and hide in the woods. Like the Prussians at Waterloo they can then burst out of the trees at the decisive moment and seize the critical balance. It is not called the balance of power for nothing.