High Water Mark for Labour?
This blog has remarked several times that Labour may have reached its high water mark. Polls are now beginning to point to this. One or two are showing the gap with the Tories growing just wide enough for the latter to win outright, all things being equal. This will be very welcome news for the Tory high command. It will be worrying, but not unexpected, for Labour.
The problem now for Labour is that they do not have many shots in their locker. In fact they never did have, but the Tories lost the plot for a spell and this helped to raise anxiety about inexperience and substance. The next phase of the campaign is going to last until Parliament is dissolved and the election is called. It is at that point that the real battle will open, with the Lib Dems and minor parties like the Greens, BNP and UKIP entering the fight at full blast, with the potential to cause upsets all over the place. Meanwhile the current new phase will be critical to the prospects of all.
Labour have before them a river to cross and as they cross it they will come under intense fire from all sides. They may not even survive the crossing as a credible force. I refer of course to the Budget. At best they will hold their position. It is unlikely they will gain ground, because Darling will not have good news, or if he does, he will be derided even more. Bad news may please Tory voters but it will put Labour off and drive them towards the Lib Dems or the BNP. Most significantly the Budget will provide the Tories with a magnificent set piece opportunity to get their campaign back on track and re-energised. Already there are signs of forces being massed for what will be, or certainly should be a, titanic attack. Not only will there be Osborne, not perhaps the heaviest weapon around, but there will be Cameron and Clarke. From the woods will come a very heavy weapon indeed, the undoubted popular choice for Chancellor, Vince Cable.
If Labour can hold their own in all of that they will do well, very well. The Lib Dems can advance more into the limelight, which means up in the polls. For the Tories this is a shot of fresh adrenalin and an opportunity to win the argument by showing they are radical, have a purpose, can be tough and have a plan. They should have no difficulty in doing this. They must. If they lose this one, they lose everything.