Election Latest
We can take it as read that in the Labour camp there is some satisfaction with the way things are going and rising morale at the realisation that contrary to almost every rational thought a few months back, they are in with a chance and have taken the initiative in the campaign. Because of the ditching of New Labour they are even managing to sound fresh on occasion, although the message is more to do with safety. Storms ahead, but we got you through the worst much better than anyone predicted. Yes Gordon shouts and throws things and he did not go to charm school, but he never gives in and he won’t let you down. High speed rail plans and a freeze on the pay of all the top people in the public sector, judges, generals, mandarins, GPs, most of whom vote Tory anyway,goes down well with the core Labour vote and with nervous international markets worried about debt.
Accross town in the Tory H.Q., there is by contrast mounting unease. What on earth is happening? How did we get here? Ashcroft, the Ulster Unionists, Samantha voting for Brown, phone calls from Bush (yes Bush.This looks as if the Americans think that the only way to get through to Cameron is to fix for one fool to call the other), plus muddles of tax, marriage, cuts and so on. Brown sobs, nearly, on Piers Morgan and up go his ratings. Cameron says he wants something more substantial and appears on Titchmarsh. I beg your pardon? The Times laughs.
There are many reasons for what began as a prang, but is now building to a multiple pile up. Some may even be approaching despair. Yet there will be steady hands and cool, calm nerves somewhere in those steamy meetings and a plan is being hatched for sure to get the show out of the ditch and back on the road. Everyone will know, or should, that nobody thought there was any chance of Heath winning in 1970 until a few hours into polling day. Much the same thing happened to Major in 1992. What is needed is just to keep on plugging the message.
What message?
Ah, that is where the biggest problem lies.
For many generations the Conservative Party was seen as the natural party of Government. Generally it governed well. Now and again it handed over to more revolutionary groupings, for example 1945, but mostly you could rely on the Tories to govern and look to Labour to fix inequality from time to time, but they did not govern as well. This began to unravel in the nineteen seventies. The Heath government fell apart having made a mess of the economy. Labour got back in and made it even worse. There was despair. Time for another revolution. But this time it was a Tory revolution led by a multi-tasking M.P, housewife and mother of humble beginnings in a corner shop in Grantham. As the grandees whispered in corners and found themselves dismissed as wet while others were reduced to tears, this remarkable lady unfurled her banner, raised it aloft and won election after election, grinding into touch unions, socialism et al.
There was of course a legacy. A bitter one. Without her, the new Tory party was nothing. As her mighty presence faded to a shadow in the wings, the party under its new leader, won a famous victory but then lost everything and crashed to its greatest defeat ever.Four leaders later it needs 117 seats to get even a majority of one. On course to do this at the start of the campaign, this now looks impossible. But wait. The campaign has not really started yet. At the moment it is a media thing. Parliament is still sitting. We have yet to have the manifestos, broadcasts, rallies and so forth. Yes and those debates.
Phew! It is not too late! No, but on the condition of one key understanding. The Tory party is no longer and has not been for years, the natural party of power. Thatcher changed it to a radical party of purpose. Victory depends on defining what that purpose is and getting the voters to embrace it. It is not about fiddling with the details of education, moving control of banks from the FSA to Threadneedle St, finding a better route for the high speed line, or ’empowering parents’. It is much bigger than all of that. Those are details but what is the Mission? There is around a feeling that the Tories just want power because they think it is their right and that’s what they teach you at Eton. Leadership and power.
Votres will turn away from that.