Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

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Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

Malcolm Blair-Robinson UK

Had either lost New York it would have been a game changer. But both won big, so the game is now resumed after one or two recent uncertainties. Bernie Sanders has made his mark, a mark few thought possible, but it seems far fetched that he could now win the nomination. Trump cannot now be stopped during the electoral process, but he may not have quite enough in the end to clinch the deal and become the Republican nominee. That means a convention decision and if Trump loses there, the anger at the grass roots will be such that the Presidency will be out of reach of the GOP. A Clinton/ Trump battle in November would be one of the most exhilarating in modern times. Clinton looks the favourite, especially since Trump uttered the toxic punish women line.

But whereas Clinton is predictable, Trump is the master of the big surprise. It is not impossible that he might just pull off the biggest surprise of all. If he wins it may turn out better than many fear. The US President does not have a lot of power in the US homeland, a lot less than a British PM. It is in defence (US defense) and Foreign Affairs that the President has power. Trump would argue for new weapons but when he saw the cost he would veto the expenditure. So to pay for stuff there would be cuts. It would be a smaller, sharper military with a lot fewer generals and admirals. On the  world stage he would cut deals based on an assessment of the other side’s red lines and how he could trade these off against US priorities.

Clinton would be more like the lawyer she is. She would stake out her claim and stick with it till she got what she wanted or got nothing. She would be cautious and pragmatic and a safe pair of hands. Not a great deal would change, but social issues would improve and the economy would be secure. The would be ups and downs but no peaks or troughs. Most people would sleep well at night.

Many would not sleep at all with Trump out there, but then in the end he might just achieve something worthwhile.

With Boris now in play, Cameron badly damaged and morphed to Dodgy Dave, with Osborne devalued by his budget disaster, Remain is in trouble. The dozens of bankers, foreign leaders and business men pleading for Britain to stay are no match for one Boris arguing to leave. So it could very well be that the world will be rocked, and believe me it will be, by the unthinkable spectacle of Britain walking from Europe.

Everything now hangs on Labour and the Unions. Largely united and backing  Remain, the latest polls reveal Labour ahead of the Tories for the first time in this parliament and guess who is trusted more on Europe by voters than Cameron, Osborne or even Boris? Jeremy Corbyn.

This blog is chuffed because it backed Corbyn from the start when he was a no hoper standing for the Labour leadership last year. Why? Because my friends we are in an historic vortex of political change. A change of political weather as many would put it. And when that happens all the verities about political realities, all your accumulated skills and wisdom as a politician, commentator, academic or observer which you have built up since 1979 and the advent of Thatcher, count for nothing. That software is obsolete and no longer recognised by the people who will not open it again. The hardware has been upgraded to different values. The era of Me First is over. Self Interest is supplanted by the Common Good. It will be the people’s judgement of where that lies which will determine how the UK winds up in June.

Boris Johnson in a flurry of rallies, interviews and speeches yesterday took command of the Leave campaign and injected a sense of passion, pride and self belief in Britain and its potential which has energised the whole debate over Europe. Never mind all these world figures he says; they all have an axe to grind as does the British establishment in keeping to the status quo. Obama was creamed in a withering dismissal as a hypocrite and Cameron, though unnamed was branded a Gerald Ratner, not just selling dodgy goods, but doing so knowing full well they were dodgy. So we have a political drama in two parts. The country torn by a decision about its future and the Tory party now in open civil war torn asunder and scattered, with the current prime minister leading the Union and the next or likely next one leading the Rebels.

Meanwhile the latest polls reveal Leave and Remain neck and neck with Leave advancing. This could be serious.

So the day at last has come. What day? The day the EU Referendum Campaign officially ‘begins’. Yes, it has being going on for months, years even, but it is now official. The government is at odds with most of its party, the cabinet is split, Cameron is damaged, Boris is rampant and all sides are saying nasty things about each other. Words like care, warning and caution have been supplanted by the freakish fairytale sounding scaremongering. Labour has come to the rescue of Cameron in that most of its members and voters are for Remain and a lukewarm endorsement came from their leader Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Essentially his message was there was much about the EU he did not like, but the outcome of leaving would be a good deal worse. World leaders and bankers are lining up to recite various disaster scenarios not just for GB but for half the world if we decide to go.

Leave launch themselves on a proposition of such mathematical gibberish as to make us wonder whether they have a clue what they are doing. Their deal is that if we leave the EU, the £300 million or so a week we send to it could be spent on the NHS. Bingo. Experts of every description and kind, from think tanks, universities and wherever, have lined up on the media to explain that although a gross sum flows out, it passes on its way a lot coming back. And if you take account of the investments made in the UK by the EU in all sorts of areas from environmental improvements to medical research, plus the revenue generated from the foreign direct investment in the UK especially because it is in the EU, you would end up at best with nothing more to spend on the NHS and very likely quite a bit less.

There is a lot of big important stuff going on in the world demanding the Labour Party’s attention. John Whittingdale’s dates are not part of it. Getting involved in this is a big own goal for Labour. The argument put forward by Maria Eagle is that what amounts to a perfectly legitimate relationship forged by Mr Whittingdale, before he was a minister,  through a dating website and afterwards ended when he found the lady’s day job was a bit specialized and in the sex industry, is that the episode for this divorced and single man somehow debars him from his statutory role of supervising the newspaper industry, now all but dead on its feet. Apparently somebody tried to sell the tabloids the story but they rejected it due to the fact there was no story.

There is a bit more to the rigmarole, but we need not bother. Ms Eagle thinks he should ‘recuse’ himself, a word not in the Oxford dictionary but perhaps an American term meaning standing to one side because of conflict of interest in some legal process.  It is not the plain English to which politicians, Labour ones especially, should always stick if they want to get their message across. The conflict of interest offered in this case thus far is so obscure that it is almost as bad as saying the Secretary of State for Industry should stand aside in the Tata negotiations due to the fact that he drives a car which is made of steel.

Ms Eagle is one of those (too many) New Labour stalwarts  Corbyn has to suffer in his shadow cabinet. This is  a pity, as nowadays they have a tendency to do more harm than good.

With his win in Wyoming Bernie Sanders has now taken seven of the last eight primary contests, but Hilary remains in the lead by a margin. All eyes are now on New York. If Sanders can take that prize it would be a game changer. He would no longer look like the challenger. Instead he would look like a winner. Hilary would be badly damaged.

Meanwhile Trump took another beating at the hands of Ted Cruz in Colorado. Trump has not won anything since he said he would punish women. But only a fool would predict it is over for the billionaire whose shock tactics have propelled him to front runner, a position he still holds. Part of his elan was that he appeared unstoppable. Well that bit is over. He can be stopped, but the question now is, can he be stopped without the Republicans losing any chance in November to take the White House? Again New York looms large. Trump  should walk it. If he fails he is stopped for sure.

Still in the US but another subject, this Blog is appalled that North Carolina has passed laws that roll back protection for gay people and require transgenders to use the public restroom for the gender on their birth certificates. This is ignorant, cruel and hypocritical. It is prejudice of the very worst kind and looks backwards into a world long gone, thank goodness. It is a part of America’s psyche that the rest of the world hates.

This extraordinary bolt from the blue has driven the UK news agenda today not so much because of the sensation but because it is a very human and touching story. Moreover proximity to Churchill is always newsworthy now, more so than when the national hero lived. Justin Welby has handled what he claims was a bombshell with great dignity and in so doing has affirmed his Christian faith. The general view is that this is an uplifting tale with a very happy ending.

Beneath it lies an important message to which the conservative right wing of the Anglican  church, a persuasion which like obsolete software no longer updated operates outside the frame of modern thinking and human generosity, must heed. The message is this. Nobody can be blamed for the circumstances of their birth. This includes parents, gender, sexual orientation, colour, the whole thing. So to discriminate against women or gays within the church or in the ministry to them is not only plain wrong, it is unchristian and cruel. The word is wicked.

This Blog has been consistently against the western expansion of the EU and especially to any formal relationship with the Ukraine. So it is pleasing to see that the Dutch voted against the pre-applicant status that was proposed by one or other of the various opaque organs of governance which drive the EU wagon. This concession to the Ukraine has to be ratified by each member country. Although the vote was on a low turnout, it serves to emphasise that the EU public are more assertive than before. This is good for democracy.

The current Ukraine government has a lot wrong with it. It came to power as a consequence of the previous legitimately elected administration and its president being toppled by street protests and riots in which far right Nazi admirers played a major role. It then fomented conditions which led to civil war and the loss to separatists of large parts of its country for which it blames everybody else. Wherever this is going is hard to predict, but it cannot be into the EU. If and when GB is playing a constructive role in Europe again it needs to add its No to the whole Ukraine project.

BROWSE MY BOOKS WITH THESE LINKS

Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

Malcolm Blair-Robinson UK