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Thursday, April 21st, 2016Trump V Clinton: A Thought or Two
Thursday, April 21st, 2016Had either lost New York it would have been a game changer. But both won big, so the game is now resumed after one or two recent uncertainties. Bernie Sanders has made his mark, a mark few thought possible, but it seems far fetched that he could now win the nomination. Trump cannot now be stopped during the electoral process, but he may not have quite enough in the end to clinch the deal and become the Republican nominee. That means a convention decision and if Trump loses there, the anger at the grass roots will be such that the Presidency will be out of reach of the GOP. A Clinton/ Trump battle in November would be one of the most exhilarating in modern times. Clinton looks the favourite, especially since Trump uttered the toxic punish women line.
But whereas Clinton is predictable, Trump is the master of the big surprise. It is not impossible that he might just pull off the biggest surprise of all. If he wins it may turn out better than many fear. The US President does not have a lot of power in the US homeland, a lot less than a British PM. It is in defence (US defense) and Foreign Affairs that the President has power. Trump would argue for new weapons but when he saw the cost he would veto the expenditure. So to pay for stuff there would be cuts. It would be a smaller, sharper military with a lot fewer generals and admirals. On the world stage he would cut deals based on an assessment of the other side’s red lines and how he could trade these off against US priorities.
Clinton would be more like the lawyer she is. She would stake out her claim and stick with it till she got what she wanted or got nothing. She would be cautious and pragmatic and a safe pair of hands. Not a great deal would change, but social issues would improve and the economy would be secure. The would be ups and downs but no peaks or troughs. Most people would sleep well at night.
Many would not sleep at all with Trump out there, but then in the end he might just achieve something worthwhile.