It is becoming clear that Leave cannot articulate a coherent plan for exactly how the UK will prosper if we leave the EU. These anti EU idealists believe in their hearts that to leave and be free is all that matters. Only a minority, certainly a motivated minority, agree, but enough who will follow a cause on merit, might join them to convert them into the majority, if they can show for sure people will be better off in the long run. This is clearly beyond Leave’s competence and outside their planning. But they can still win.
Remain’s campaign is relatively simple. We are too interwoven into the EU fabric to withdraw without significant damage in the short term and without any certain advantages in the long term. Fear of change in other words. Very little positive stuff about the huge achievement of a united Europe after centuries of bloodshed, the benefits of being able to travel, live and move capital without restrictions anywhere within its borders. Just fear. Fear of the unknown.
But Leave is stoking a fear of its own. Fear of immigration. Never mind that the probable root cause of the growth of the UK economy faster than others in the EU is because of the economic benefit of having more migrants working here. It is a fear of pressure on housing, services, health and education,, because all of those core elements of life are on their uppers after years of austerity.
So the vote will in the end not really be about staying in Europe. It will be about fear of leaving or fear of immigrants. People vote against what they fear. The result will be determined by what people fear most.