Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Just a quick point. While the Tories have a majority of up to 12 if you remove the Speaker, Sinn Fein etc, or 5 to be exact, their majority in England over Labour is 113. There are then 6 Lib Dems, 1 Green and 1 UKIP, but that still leaves Cameron with a margin of over 100. So watch for more devolution to Scotland and Wales, and an English votes rule, followed by a lot of England only legislation, because here Cameron is unstoppable. His wafer thin majority is only vulnerable on full UK issues. One of those issues will be passing the English only rule.

In every other democracy in the world a constitutional change of this magnitude would require a referendum, but in the UK those who govern control the unwritten constitution, rather than those who are governed. This is why I refuse to describe our country as a full democracy. But if Labour were able to rally all the other parties to block the measure and a bit of Tory conscience produced a few rebels, this fundamental change could be blocked until a wider constitutional structure for a federal United Kingdom is agreed, as this may now be the only route open to preserve the Union in the long term.

This blog will be silent until May 14th. I am off for a few days in the sun (I am not resigning!).

Meanwhile I am still somewhat seething at the horlicks made by the pollsters, which caused people like me to write a whole lot of rubbish because Labour and the Tories were nowhere near neck and neck for quite a few days before polling. I suspect it swung to the Tories after Milliband failed to give a proper defence to Labour’s alleged overspend on the Question Time for the three leaders and as the impact of the various scare stories about the SNP etc began to take effect. It is disappointing that Cameron stooped to that level of fear and I suspect a rather unworthy campaign may come back to haunt him. By then its architect will be back home on the other side of the world.

Looking at the percentages of increased vote share over 2010, not surprisingly the Lib  Dems are worst at minus 15.2.  UKIP are top at plus 9.5, but in 2010 they were very much a minor player, SNP next with 3.1, then Greens at 2.8, Labour at 1.5 and the Tories last at just 0.8. That is very interesting. It seems to suggest that the collapse of the Lib Dems and the negative impact of UKIP on Labour in Labour/Tory marginals was the source of the victory for the Tories. It also explains why Labour were making some random gains as well. But the big story remains Scotland.

I may have a few more thoughts later next week after chilling out at sunny beech bars for a spell. By then the talking point may be Greece.