Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Set in the mid nineteen nineties, this fast moving thriller lifts the curtain on sex, sleaze and corruption in high places as the long reign of the government totters to an end, following the ousting of the iconic Margaret Thatcher. The novel catches the mood of those times with a host of fictional characters who engage in political intrigue, sex, money laundering and murder, pursued by an Irish investigative journalist and his girlfriend, the daughter of a cabinet minister found dead in a hotel room after bondage sex.

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Within minutes of Cameron’s triumph being confirmed Milliband, Clegg and Farage all resigned, although Farage indicated that after a long holiday he might run for the leadership again. This fashion for political losers to take flight is absurd. It is also counter-productive politically and against the national interest as the country is faced with a procession of greenhorn leaders who do not measure up through lack of experience.

When Churchill was sacked by the country in 1945 he stayed on as Tory leader and ran Attlee a close second in 1950 then beat him in 1951, returning to Downing St until he retired in 1955. Attlee meanwhile stayed on as leader after his 1951 defeat and only resigned after he was beaten again in 1955 by Eden. Gaitskell replaced him, lost his first general election in 1959, but would have won the next in 1964 had he not fallen ill and died. Wilson won for Labour in 1964 and 1966, lost to Heath in 1970, but came back to win first as a minority government, then again with a small majority in 1974 until he retired in 1976. Heath had lost one election before he won in 1970, then lost twice more before being ousted by Thatcher. I could go on but you get the picture.

After Major, the Tories went through three leaders before they found a winning duo in Cameron and Osborne, spotted and brought forward by Michael Howard, before he quit after losing in 2005. But this business walking out the day after losing, hands a huge advantage to the winning government, which only has to contend with an opposition consumed by leadership rivalries at least for the first one hundred magic days. It was in this period that the Coalition laid down the largely unjustified charge which stuck because it was never challenged, that the great crash had been caused by Labour overspending when in fact its deficits had not been as high as either Thatcher or Major until the banks collapsed. Labour never recovered its credibility and moreover lost confidence in its own convictions, leading to mixed and confusing economic messages which undoubtedly were the main source of its defeat yesterday.

Farage maybe because he said he would if he failed to take Thanet. But Milliband and Clegg should have stood by their troops, dried their tears and stayed with them during a period of reflection, until the dust has settled and a clearer aspiration for the future emerges. Meanwhile they should harass and challenge the incoming government at every twist and turn to make sure its first hundred days are no free ride. It would not be difficult. A majority of five is hardly a landslide.

Of course there is a leader who has arrived in Westminster and who will step into the vacuum. Alex Salmond. He is going to have a ball.

The best way to begin this blog, having been up more or less all night, is with the final sentence of my last post.

Finally there is the impact of UKIP. If tactical voting is used comprehensively it could well be that UKIP could fail to win a single seat, yet cause a political upset so unexpected as to make much that I have written above little more than hot air.

This is more or less what has happened. Votes for UKIP have prevented Labour making the gains predicted by the polls, all of which, by being just a point or two wrong predicted a hung parliament, without anyone predicting a Tory majority. But that was not all that caused the polls to be wrong, and so wrong that when the BBC/ITV exit poll was published all commentators and politicians, even Tories, doubted that it could be right. The other factor was the complete collapse of support for the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems had made a success of being a safe haven for Tories who harked back to the pre-Thatcher era of one nation Conservatism in the south and to Labour supporters further north who felt Labour no longer looked after working class needs. Suddenly there was no need for them. The Tories extended a hand to the one nation lovers and Labour moved back towards the working class. Neither move was very significant, or even maybe sincere, but it was enough. A small party can fight on one front a bigger opponent and survive, but not on two fronts.

So all this talk of deals and a new politics of multi parties has gone poof in the night. We are back to two parties in England and more or less Wales, and that is 80% of the UK. Where things have changed ominously is that Scotland now speaks with a single united SNP voice and in Westminster that will be the voice of Alex Salmond.

Now for the bed of roses which may prove rather thorny. Cameron is set, at the time of writing,  for a majority of three or four, but he has been used to governing with a majority of eighty. Yes it meant compromise in coalition, but once agreed the parliamentary position was formidable. A majority of three or so is almost certain to lead to political crisis and has always done so in the past. The problem is that while the opposition, which will be primarily Labour, the SNP and both the Unionist NI parties, backs the Tory position on the Union, it is opposed austerity and pro Europe. This will severely restrict the Tory ability to push through unpopular measures, hostility to which unites all the other parties in the Commons.