Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

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    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.K.

Sunday’s polls show no break in the neck and neck deadlock, although the hints that the Tories were gaining a small lead seem to have receded, but they have not been replaced with a distinctive Labour advantage.

This is not a prediction, but the poll averages appear to indicate a possible outcome where the Tories are the largest party, leaving Cameron trying to form some kind of new government, but the anti-austerity parties led by Labour having a collective majority against it. This majority grouping may or may not operate as a single force, depending very much on Labour’s post election relations with the SNP.

As for details, the Tories will gain some seats but lose more, Labour will gain but not enough and will lose almost all in Scotland, the Lib Dems will lose about half their seats to both Labour and the Tories, and UKIP will lose Rochester but maybe gain Thanet South and Thurrock. The big story will be the scale of the Scot Nat win. If it is less than forty seats for the SNP that will be a story too, but different.

All this ignores tactical voting. If that occurs in a big way almost anything can happen, but to whom and with what outcome it is impossible to say. Put another way it could produce an upset, but of what nobody knows. Another caveat is the any swings may not be uniform. Constituency polling reveals variations going against the overall trends.

It will not be long before we know how the election has turned out, but it may be a good deal longer before we know who is going to govern us.