Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

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The referendum campaign has changed the United Kingdom fundamentally, in spite of the fact Scotland voted to stay within it. The change is subtle but politically it is seismic. What has happened is this.

Before, Scotland played its part in the UK by sending its ambitious politicians to Westminster, to advocate Scotland’s role in the governance of the UK. The result was several Scottish prime ministers and a guarantee of Scots around every cabinet table in London. Gradually a feeling built up that these Scottish ministers were working more in England’s interests than Scotland’s. The Thatcherite shift to free markets and the right was absorbed into the mainstream of English politics, but not in Scotland which remained true to its left of centre traditions. The political effect was the elimination of the Tories as a force in Scottish politics and the rise of the Scottish Nationalists.

Labour under Tony Blair gave Scotland devolution, but initially the Scots remained loyal to their own left party, Labour, and elected a Labour led government in Edinburgh. Later they became more adventurous and elected a minority SNP government and then, when they liked what it did, they gave it an overall majority. Labour began to look English and the UK Labour government began to look like England ruling Scotland. Once the coalition came to power this looked even more the case, since the Tories, who led it, had only one seat in Scotland.

Nevertheless the coalition agreed to the independence referendum which exposed the whole argument as never before and engaged ordinary Scots in the political process, producing a record turn out on the day. During the campaign Labour stood beside the Tories and Lib Dems to campaign for No. They succeeded but at the price of buying victory with promises of more devolution for Scotland. Politically the outcome was very different.

All Labour’s best brains had gone south for decades and those who ran Scottish Labour (as opposed to those who campaigned for No) were very much not in the premier league. On the other hand Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon were revealed as among the most competent political operators in the whole United Kingdom with undoubted leadership qualities which gave them national and even international standing. Post the referendum vote, Scottish Labour, who won it, was abandoned and the membership of the SNP, who lost it, tripled to make it the third largest political party in the whole UK. It is likely to reduce the formerly omnipotent Labour to a tiny handful of Scottish MP’s on Thursday.

What this means is, not only Labour cannot win a majority at Westminster (unless the Tories have a disaster in England), but also even if Tories are the largest  party, they will not be able to build a majority coalition which the anti-austerity parties cannot block.  The Scots have learned how to re-invent their power. Instead of relying on a few worthies to look after them at Westminster, they are going to send a party en masse to help shape governance of the UK which is in Scotland’s view of what is best.

In other words they are saying to England ‘you wanted us to stay in the Union. Well we have and now we are going to have a lot to do with how it’s run. And that will be in Scottish interests and those of Wales and Northern Ireland. England’s hegemony is over.‘ And if they do not get their way? Another referendum on independence? Perhaps? Why? Because by then England might be pleased to see them go.

It is one of those old sequences. The No campaign won the war, but looks set to lose the peace.