Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

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    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.K.

The performance of all three leaders last night was robust in the face of pretty hostile questioning which at times was really nasty. Cameron perhaps had the easier ride because his platform of we are fixing the economy let us finish the job is the easiest brief. Milliband coped well and ended closer behind Cameron on a snap poll than anyone would have thought possible not long ago. Clegg came last, not I think because of his performance, but because (save for the biggest upset in British democratic history) he is not in the running for prime minister.

All the commentators seemed to be agreed that the star was the audience and all were surprised by the venomous mistrust of the political class it revealed. This is going to become a serious issue which will undermine the authority of government generally, especially because of the complete unsuitability of our democratic structure for the challenge which is about to confront it. Whatever government emerges after the poll there is every prospect that it will have been voted for by no one.

Cameron has said he will not join up with any party which does not back his referendum plan. Clegg refuses to join any party that wants a referendum without a further hand over of sovereignty to the EU, which is not even on the agenda in Brussels. So that cuts out a Tory/Lib Dem deal and leaves only UKIP for Cameron. But on current polling the two together will not have a majority. So we look to Labour. But Milliband has ruled out a deal with the Scot Nats, who on current polling will have all or nearly all of Labour’s Scottish seats, so he would not be able to go to the Palace either.

So maybe Cameron, who is prime minister until he resigns (or the Queen fires him, which constitutional convention not the constitution itself, prevents) so he may have a go as a minority administration and put forward a Queen’s Speech. This will then be voted down by the anti-heavy austerity parties, which is actually all of them except the Tories. So Milliband has a go, but he cannot get a confidence vote without the Scot Nats. So say he does and gets his Queen’s Speech through. Unless he has already overturned the Tory’s natural majority in England, in which case he could probably do it alone or with the Lib Dems but no polls are predicting that outcome, he will have to cosy up to Alex Salmond. But the new government will not have a majority in England so devolved issues will be subject to a Tory veto as far as they affect England.

In the worst case scenario it will be neither clear who is governing nor whom they govern. One dare not think of the fright this will give the markets. It will be made worse by the fact that with so many parties standing for every seat and no fair voting system in place, few MPs will sit in  the Commons with a majority of the votes in their constituencies. This will give an assembly of honourable members, whom we now know voters regard as liars and cheats, which most people have voted against.

It may not happen but on the present state of the opinions polls it is the most likely outcome.