Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Set in the mid nineteen nineties, this fast moving thriller lifts the curtain on sex, sleaze and corruption in high places as the long reign of the government totters to an end, following the ousting of the iconic Margaret Thatcher. The novel catches the mood of those times with a host of fictional characters who engage in political intrigue, sex, money laundering and murder, pursued by an Irish investigative journalist and his girlfriend, the daughter of a cabinet minister found dead in a hotel room after bondage sex.

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An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy! Download only .99p Paperback £2.99

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Unless the polls are wrong and as they mostly agree this is unlikely, we are headed for a hung parliament with the Tories just ahead on seats. Labour will be close behind and together with the anti-austerity pro-EU parties, will have enough sympathisers to block any Tory led Queen’s speech which looks the least bit Tory and includes heavy duty cuts. How this will resolve itself into stable government is beyond prediction at this stage.

Beneath that expectation there is a bigger story. If this election were to be decided on the predicted swing from Tory to Labour, this would not only make Milliband leader of the largest party, but it might also give him a majority. But the epicentre of this election is not London but Edinburgh, for if the polls are right (if again) Labour stands to lose most if not all its Scottish seats. This is equivalent to a Tory massacre in the Shires. It means that whatever gains Labour makes in England will be offset or partly offset by its losses in Scotland. However there is very little difference in the political philosophy of the two parties. The SNP are a bit more left and on a par with the left wing of the Labour party. In effect the SNP has replaced the Labour party in Scotland.

The new reality is that although Scotland is still in the Union it is now speaking with its own voice and just as in other European countries with federal systems, local state parties of right or left come together to form a national majority coalition. This is what should happen if things turn out as expected on Friday morning, but such is the bad blood between Labour and the SNP it may not. Moreover such has been the venomous anti-SNP rhetoric  (widely seen as anti-Scotland by Scots themselves)  of the Tory campaign, that any Cameron led government would not be seen as legitimate by many north of the border, putting further strains on the Union. This is why many commentators who have been engaged on the ground reporting the election in Scotland itself, are beginning to have doubts about whether the Union can, in fact, endure.

That could turn out to be the big story of this election. The election which saw the Union begin to crack. Had we taken the trouble to organize constitutional arrangements at the time of devolution which recognized the need for some form of federal structure of governance, the Union would now be secure. As it is the ambiguous status of both the House of Commons and the voting rights of those who sit in it, may well be the point of fracture.

Meanwhile it seems in order to throw up some warnings about the economic recovery. Growth is still there but slowing, consumer debt has risen to 2008 levels, exports are down, manufacturing has fallen and no rebalancing of the economy has actually happened. At the currency level something awkward is brewing. The pound has risen against the euro and fallen against the dollar. This means exports to our main market which are priced in euros at point of sale, are becoming expensive, so demand is falling. But imports of energy and raw materials are becoming more expensive to us because they are mostly priced in dollars. The twist is that this may also be the moment when having an independent currency becomes a problem we did not see coming.

So whoever forms the government only one thing is certain. The experience will be no bed of roses. Finally there is the impact of UKIP. If tactical voting is used comprehensively it could well be that UKIP could fail to win a single seat, yet cause a political upset so unexpected as to make much that I have written above little more than hot air.