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Last Few hours.Ends 09.00 GMT Thursday.
Politically is was a bravura performance of energy and conviction. As always most of the good news is in projections, not in actual achieved facts. There were no dramatic give aways, not least because the Tories know they have done that trick too often to be trusted. There was some tinkering here and there, notably raising the personal allowance, relief for oil which will be welcome in Scotland and more tax for bankers to pay which will be applauded everywhere but in the banks. But today was the theatre part of the budget. Over the next few days some of the awkward figures emerge, so judgement must be reserved until we see how it plays out.
Milliband did well in his response; one of the most difficult for an opposition leader because he has no advance copy of what is to come and has to make it up as he listens. He was passionate and angry and very forceful, all good stuff for an opposition leader. The problem is he does not like his job and he wants to be Prime Minister. It is looking less likely that this will happen, but nothing is certain. His weakness is that Labour lacks a narrative which captures voters’ imaginations and rises above the minutiae of policy detail. The Tories have one, reinforced by Osborne today. They are fixing the economy, Britain is growing, things are getting better by the day, let them finish the job. This could be telling when the nation wakes up to polling day. If it agrees with the narrative the Tories will win.
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One can take the view that there is always trouble ahead for Israel; the question is which sort of trouble.
Netanyahu’s win is unexpected and will be greeted with dismay in Washington and by the Palestinians, as well as by most of the UN. This is because in order to swing votes from right wing extremist parties into the Likud fold, he had to swing sharply to the right himself in the last hours of the campaign. He declared that there would be no Palestinian State. This is indeed a bombshell of the most destructive kind to any prospect of revising the peace process.
If the new Israeli government comes forward with a plan for a single state in which Palestinians will enjoy equal rights, status, democracy, opportunity, protection and religious freedom as Jews, then there could be a basis for moving forward. But if, as seems more likely, Netanyahu’s plans will involve a continuing military occupation of a subjugated people as well as land seizures for illegal settlement building and all manner of other restrictions, then there is no prospect of peace, nor any reliable security for Israel itself.
As this blog noted a few posts back, Britain was courageous to provoke American censure by joining the new Chinese development bank. This lead has inspired Germany and France to follow with their own applications to join up. The moment may be approaching when a challenge to Israel could do more good than harm.
Recognising a new Palestinian state perhaps? Israel too must learn it cannot have everything its own way if it wishes to retain international backing for its continued independent existence, with appropriate diplomatic and military guarantees for its ultimate security. The world has been generous to Israel and suffered a good deal of mayhem on its behalf. This will not continue unconditionally for ever. Even in the US.