Osborne’s Last Throw : Was It Far Enough?

Politically is was a bravura performance of energy and conviction. As always most of the good news is in projections, not in actual achieved facts. There were no dramatic give aways, not least because the Tories know they have done that trick too often to be trusted. There was some tinkering here and there, notably raising the personal allowance, relief for oil which will be welcome in Scotland and more tax for bankers to pay which will be applauded everywhere but in the banks. But today was the theatre part of the budget. Over the next few days some of the awkward figures emerge, so judgement must be reserved until we see how it plays out.

Milliband did well in his response; one of the most difficult for an opposition leader because he has no advance copy of what is to come and has to make it up as he listens. He was passionate and angry and very forceful, all good stuff for an opposition leader. The problem is he does not like his job and he wants to be Prime Minister. It is looking less likely that this will happen, but nothing is certain. His weakness is that Labour lacks a narrative which captures voters’ imaginations and rises above the minutiae of policy detail. The Tories have one, reinforced by Osborne today. They are fixing the economy, Britain is growing, things are getting better by the day, let them finish the job. This could be telling when the nation wakes up to polling day. If it agrees with the narrative the Tories will win.