Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Sometimes the most shocking things in the news cause the fewest ripples. Today we learn that for more than a year children have been dying or suffering severe consequences of this dread disease, which include brain damage and even limb loss, when a perfectly good vaccine is available to stop the spread of the illness with over 90% success in extensive trials, now complete. The delay is an argument over the cost of the doses between the government and the manufacturer.  Talks are ‘ongoing’ and agreement is expected ‘soon’.

It is incomprehensible to this blog how this degree of callous insensitivity in public affairs can exist when the welfare and lives of children are at stake. The argument ranges between a fiver or a tenner. It is also a mystery how it is people suffer the squirming  cauldron of buck passing quangos and spineless ministers that our system of government has become.

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Politics now operates to a new and different dynamic. When something of little public interest is afoot, not much has changed, but when a budget and an election combine then this new dynamic swings into action. It is the power of social media and the revolution in smart phone communication among peer groups, blogs and commentators. Thus it is that the entrails of the budget will be exposed in ways which never happened before. And after the triumph of its delivery which made Osborne look as if he might have won the election for Cameron, the aftermath of testing comment and opinion may indicate that he could have lost it.

The new benefits to savers and the tax on bankers are popular for sure, but now there is a creeping fear about the fact that so much depends on forecasts and that the most immediate, the cuts to public spending to come after the election if the Tories win, are described as a roller coaster by the OBR and potentially frightening to floating voters in key marginals who rely on public services and state help even if they are in work. More time will be needed to see if Osborne has indeed produced the winning brew, but the signs after the first few sips taken in the last twenty-four hours should cause anxiety at Tory H.Q.

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Politically is was a bravura performance of energy and conviction. As always most of the good news is in projections, not in actual achieved facts. There were no dramatic give aways, not least because the Tories know they have done that trick too often to be trusted. There was some tinkering here and there, notably raising the personal allowance, relief for oil which will be welcome in Scotland and more tax for bankers to pay which will be applauded everywhere but in the banks. But today was the theatre part of the budget. Over the next few days some of the awkward figures emerge, so judgement must be reserved until we see how it plays out.

Milliband did well in his response; one of the most difficult for an opposition leader because he has no advance copy of what is to come and has to make it up as he listens. He was passionate and angry and very forceful, all good stuff for an opposition leader. The problem is he does not like his job and he wants to be Prime Minister. It is looking less likely that this will happen, but nothing is certain. His weakness is that Labour lacks a narrative which captures voters’ imaginations and rises above the minutiae of policy detail. The Tories have one, reinforced by Osborne today. They are fixing the economy, Britain is growing, things are getting better by the day, let them finish the job. This could be telling when the nation wakes up to polling day. If it agrees with the narrative the Tories will win.

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One can take the view that there is always trouble ahead for Israel; the question is which sort of trouble.

Netanyahu’s win is unexpected and will be greeted with dismay in Washington and by the Palestinians, as well as by most of the UN. This is because in order to swing votes from right wing extremist parties into the Likud fold, he had to swing sharply to the right himself in the last hours of the campaign. He declared that there would be no Palestinian State. This is indeed a bombshell of the most destructive kind to any prospect of revising the peace process.

If the new Israeli government comes forward with a plan for a single state in which Palestinians will enjoy equal rights, status, democracy, opportunity,  protection and religious freedom as Jews, then there could be a basis for moving forward. But if, as seems more likely, Netanyahu’s plans will involve a continuing military occupation of a subjugated people as well as land seizures for illegal settlement building and all manner of other restrictions, then there is no prospect of peace, nor any reliable security for Israel itself.

As this blog noted a few posts back, Britain was courageous to provoke American censure by joining the new Chinese development bank. This lead has inspired Germany and France to follow with their own applications to join up. The moment may be approaching when a challenge to Israel could do more good than harm.

Recognising a new Palestinian state perhaps? Israel too must learn it cannot have everything its own way if it wishes to retain international backing for its continued independent existence, with appropriate diplomatic and military guarantees for its ultimate security. The world has been generous to Israel and suffered a good deal of mayhem on its behalf. This will not continue unconditionally for ever. Even in the US.

An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places.     Download free now!   UK    US

Israel is now voting and many outside that country await the outcome with interest. Meaningful comment cannot happen until we know what that outcome is, but this background observation is important.

It is the inability to come to a reasonable settlement between the Jewish state and its Palestinian co-inhabitants of what was once Palestine which is the root cause of all the turmoil in the Middle East, the rise of Isis, Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah and all the other destabilizing elements, the effects of which permeate all the western world and beyond. Without this endless conflict Iran would not have engaged in the process of learning how to build a nuclear bomb. It is unlikely there would have been 9/11 and all that has flowed from it.

So all countries should care about the outcome. And to whomever forms the next government the message should be conveyed loud and clear. Israel’s right to exist will be protected and its need for security recognised, but no longer can obdurate obstruction to any meaningful peace process, nor settlement building, nor a nihilistic attitude to Palestinian hopes and aspirations, be accepted as the way things in future will be done.

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An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places.