Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Michael Fallon, the UK Defence Secretary, sees a Russian threat to destabilize Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all members of Nato, but formerly part of the Soviet empire. He is correct to see danger, but his ‘blame the Russians’ mantra is not only wrong but increases the threat.

The threat comes from ethnic Russians who make up a substantial minority in all three countries becoming anxious about their status and their safety. If they continue to feel worthy citizens and an integral part of the country in which they live and were probably born, no real threat will develop. It is therefore vital that the West makes it perfectly clear to the governments of the Baltic States that it will not back them if they decide to foment trouble in the style of Kiev. For we must remember that it was the West’s enthusiastic backing of the mob which overthrew by violent protest the elected government in Ukraine which led to the chain of events now unfolding.

Nato thought it would be clever to expand the military alliance east to the Russian border by giving membership to former members of the Warsaw pact. Had this been part of a general settlement with Russia with a view to bringing her into both Nato and the EU as a European power, all the present troubles would have been avoided. As it is Nato now finds that it incorporates within its membership nations of little military contribution but substantial military risk. This is because of the clear risk of instability in the Baltic region if the West continues on its path of making an enemy of Russia, which in itself could be enough to stir up the fears of Russian minorities in these countries. In other words Fallon is right about the risk, but blinkered as to the cause. Yes Russia could stir up trouble by design, but the West could do the same by mistake.

Nato’s eastern posture in the Baltic is strategically mishandled. It has placed itself between Russia and Kaliningrad, which is Russian and given to it by the allies in 1945. It has done this by incorporating members who, were trouble to break out, would face significant internal stress because just over a million of their citizens are ethnic Russians. Instability in the front line is a serious military handicap, the more so with an enemy strong point in the rear. Fallon is right to worry but he is worrying about the wrong things.

Instead of allowing its dislike of Putin (because he appears to outsmart them) to translate into demonising the Kremlin, Western leaders must now face the fact that a danger point has been reached and the time has come when work must begin on a new settlement with Russia which will be in the combined interests of all. To describe such a thing as appeasement is to demonstrate, once again, that people who do so have little understanding of the real dynamics of the Nazi era. Now the dynamics are very different.

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Politicians do not like to talk about the fragile nature of the UK’s Economic Recovery. Yet it remains rooted in borrowing, asset inflation, housing costs which are out of control and a housing shortage which continues to grow. It is consumption based in a country which no longer makes things for shoppers to buy, so jobs are exported and things are imported. Wages are at an historic low, requiring subsidy and support from the government, even for those in work. The list goes on and on and you know it well. If you are a politician you never talk about it because you cannot see any other way forward. If you are in the top 10% you have never had it so good. If you are young and unemployed you are close to despair.

Yet it does not have to be like this. There is another way. Dynamic Quantitative Easing. It is only 2500 words in easy read format, but it has taken seven years to research and write. To turn the report into a booklet, the January 2015 posts of this blog have been added.

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It was clear to anyone with some understanding of what the situation was on the ground and the emotions driving it, that the separatists would not stop fighting until the Debaltseve salient was in their hands. Merkel probably knew this when she said things were far from certain. She also probably knew, because that it what happened in Georgia, that the implementation of the ceasefire would be bit by bit rather than all at once. It is the case that violence has reduced but it is not ended. What happens next will depend on the political implementation of the promises made to give the separatists a vote on their future and an acceptance of the fact that they will vote to get as far away from Kiev as is possible. The level of killing and destruction makes that inevitable and any western politician who supposes otherwise is at the very least misguided.

The level of urban destruction, like in the Syrian civil war, is shocking and the conditions in which people remaining within the contested areas appalling. This blog has no hesitation in blaming Kiev. It sent in its army. It need not have done. It could have accepted from the very beginning that with the collapse of the soviet empire of which Ukraine was a unified part, the ethnic and cultural mix meant that the integrity of the state would only be preserved if some form of federal structure were put together which would satisfy both the aspirations and fears of all.  Had it done so, it would have most likely preserved its territorial integrity.

Instead it sent in its army. It should never have done that. A government which sends its army to kill its own people has abdicated its right to govern. The West should have made this clear to Kiev from the very beginning. Pick a fight, and you fight alone.

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Cameron and Milliband are busy advertising the ways in which their own brand of politics will help young people into work. The Labour model looks more comprehensive. The Tory idea of community work is something of a cop out and unlikely to inspire young people to make better use of their educational opportunities.

At the heart of these difficulties is the shape of the economy as it is modelled in 2015. Because of the post socialist shrinking of the country’s manufacturing and industrial base there are now very few areas of the country where neighbourhood jobs are worthwhile and pay good money. The days when every community had a basic employer in the form of a works or factory have long gone. Yet to solve the UK’s problems of youth unemployment, debt overhang, budget deficit, housing costs et al, will require those days to be brought back in some form and with a modern platform. Unfortunately there is not a single political leader or indeed anyone presently with a plan to do that. They do not even mention it. Community work or apprenticeships paid for by bankers bonus’s hardly do more than scratch at the margins of the challenge.

On a lighter note if I were a banker I would vote Labour. Their tax on bonuses seems to be earmarked to pay for almost the entire election manifesto of Ed Milliband’s party. So clearly the bonus culture will be safe with Labour.

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There is reliable evidence that the Islamic State is suffering under continuous air strikes. Up till now these have been predominantly American. Recently Jordan launched a substantial number of attacks on its own initiative using what it described as dozens of aircraft in reprisal for the brutal killing of its young pilot. Now we learn that Egypt has immediately attacked from the air IS bases, following the execution of a number of its citizens, all coptic Christians. This is a very significant development because both Egypt and Jordan are predominantly Sunni, as is the Islamic State.

For a while IS was doing very well militarily and in the more subtle, but no less important, propaganda campaign. Now things look less good for them. It is impossible to win a modern military campaign without air power if the other side has it. IS had to secure the territory and the allegiance of Sunnis before enemies with air power became active. Not only has this not happened but now the Sunnis themselves are turning against it. It has always been the view of this blog that western intervention played against its own interests and to the IS tune and that it was the Arabs themselves who would need to sort things out. This is because it is an Arab war invoking a clash of different ideologies within the many threads of Islam.

There are signs that this is starting to happen.

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There comes a time in the onward march of history when a page is turned. Such was the end of the cold war. Since then the United States, with the United Kingdom steadfast at its side, has bestrode the world as the only superpower. Its agenda was the example to follow. Its model of capitalism was the best. Democracy was the right method of government. Local problems could easily be solved with military intervention. Eventually everyone would fall in line because the American way is the best way.

As part of this global vision, some might call it an imperial vision although Americans are opposed to the notion of empire, China with its own form of state capitalism has been embraced by the US, in spite of the fact that it is not a democracy and is still run by its Communist party. A deal was struck. America would take China’s manufacturing output; China would take America’s money and also buy its debt as deficits began to yawn. This is why America’s Forex reserves are down to $126billion and why China’s stand at a fraction under $4trillion.

Russia has however been a different story. While China made a relatively seamless transition from Maoism to the real world, Russia floundered in chaos under Yeltsin and had to wait for Putin before it even looked as if it could stand up without falling over. America and Europe somehow failed to connect with Russia during those times. Yes there was contact and there were projects, but no real partnership. Whilst the eagle seemed able to measure, read and cope with the dragon, it appeared unable or unwilling to understand the bear. Britain did not help. Blame the Russians has been the default option of the foreign office since before the nineteenth century Crimean war.

Meanwhile instead of everything moving forward on a upward trajectory, things began to go wrong. There was 9/11, the calamity of the Iraq invasion, lack of real achievement in Afghanistan, disaster in Libya, slaughter in Syria and a global financial crash as well. Russia looked on and drew closer to China diplomatically. There was trouble for the inheritors of the old soviet empire in both Chechnya and Georgia, yet somehow these were managed by Russia as national rather than international difficulties. The west watched and let Russia get on with it. The blue smoke belching in clouds from elderly tanks revealed a military capability of severe limitations.

As regular readers know I am more sympathetic to Russia than most of my fellow countrymen. I think I understand that when you look west from east it is a different perspective. My ancestors on my mother’s side lived for over four hundred years on the same estate farming the same land near the Baltic coast in an area now known as Kaliningrad, which since 1945 has been part of Russia. Except for a short period of the failed Weimar republic they survived and prospered without any notion of democracy. Further to the east, Russia itself has only been a democracy since the fall of communism. What Russians want from their democracy is a strong state which will guard and protect them and a strong leader who will make it function properly. They like a Czar by whatever name. This is why they like Putin. They see a West which has much to commend it and an America which has much to envy, but Russia is unique, it is their motherland and they will defend it no matter what. Even if the Czar is a butcher like Stalin.

As Russians see it they have tried to be friends with the West, but mostly they got the brush off from people who look down upon them and see the worst in them. A West which has entirely forgotten that it would still be under Nazi rule were it not for the forty million Russians who died fighting Hitler’s Germany. For twenty years the West has had its way, and America has been unchallenged as the power on the earth. That is now over. From now on there will be another voice, account of which will have to be taken. A huge military upgrade is in progress, with new tanks, planes, missiles and nuclear weapons on the way. How much of this Russia will be able to afford and how much of the new technologies will be reliable is not yet clear. What is clear is the state of mind. In future Russia will not let the West have its way unchallenged. China will be its diplomatic ally and in extremis a military ally as well.

This does not mean a new cold war. But it does mean from now on the West will have to think before it acts. Russia remains one of the two nuclear superpowers. We may be re-entering an era when one wrong move means the end of the world. The younger generations will have to get used to that.