Michael Fallon, the UK Defence Secretary, sees a Russian threat to destabilize Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all members of Nato, but formerly part of the Soviet empire. He is correct to see danger, but his ‘blame the Russians’ mantra is not only wrong but increases the threat.
The threat comes from ethnic Russians who make up a substantial minority in all three countries becoming anxious about their status and their safety. If they continue to feel worthy citizens and an integral part of the country in which they live and were probably born, no real threat will develop. It is therefore vital that the West makes it perfectly clear to the governments of the Baltic States that it will not back them if they decide to foment trouble in the style of Kiev. For we must remember that it was the West’s enthusiastic backing of the mob which overthrew by violent protest the elected government in Ukraine which led to the chain of events now unfolding.
Nato thought it would be clever to expand the military alliance east to the Russian border by giving membership to former members of the Warsaw pact. Had this been part of a general settlement with Russia with a view to bringing her into both Nato and the EU as a European power, all the present troubles would have been avoided. As it is Nato now finds that it incorporates within its membership nations of little military contribution but substantial military risk. This is because of the clear risk of instability in the Baltic region if the West continues on its path of making an enemy of Russia, which in itself could be enough to stir up the fears of Russian minorities in these countries. In other words Fallon is right about the risk, but blinkered as to the cause. Yes Russia could stir up trouble by design, but the West could do the same by mistake.
Nato’s eastern posture in the Baltic is strategically mishandled. It has placed itself between Russia and Kaliningrad, which is Russian and given to it by the allies in 1945. It has done this by incorporating members who, were trouble to break out, would face significant internal stress because just over a million of their citizens are ethnic Russians. Instability in the front line is a serious military handicap, the more so with an enemy strong point in the rear. Fallon is right to worry but he is worrying about the wrong things.
Instead of allowing its dislike of Putin (because he appears to outsmart them) to translate into demonising the Kremlin, Western leaders must now face the fact that a danger point has been reached and the time has come when work must begin on a new settlement with Russia which will be in the combined interests of all. To describe such a thing as appeasement is to demonstrate, once again, that people who do so have little understanding of the real dynamics of the Nazi era. Now the dynamics are very different.