Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

You can look at an international situation in two ways; tribally or strategically. Tribally means you behave like a football supporter. Your team is always good and theirs is always bad. This is how the West presently handles Russia. Or you can take a strategic view. What are the issues? Who fears what? What is the impact on innocent civilians? How can accord be reached that creates common interests, but also respects individual fears? Where are the lines in the sand? The strategic approach can lead to better times, so long as it does not involve uneven concessions by one side or the other. The tribal approach leads to permanent tension and frequently war.

This is why this blog constantly criticizes the unimaginitive proclamations of the British government and its unconditional support for Kiev. The latest plan to send 75 troops to back up Kiev’s forces in a non-combat role is very disappointing as it reveals that nothing so far has been learned. Modern Russia is not the rigid structure of the old Soviet Empire. Putin’s counter of a deal with Cyprus to enable Russian Warships to use her ports is altogether more imaginative and a signal to Whitehall that if it wants to play this way it will have to up its game.

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Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S          Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.K.

If we are talking about the length of the campaign the answer must depend on whether you like politics or not. If we are talking about the outcome, there is no way yet of predicting what that will be. A hung parliament looks certain, but it is not clear who will lead the resultant coalition and how many parties have to join in to provide a majority. Nor is it clear whether there will be a coalition or whether the largest party will try to govern without a majority on a confidence and supply basis.

Because of the ridiculous decision to keep first past the post when six credible parties are in contention for votes, tactical voting could deliver a significant majority to one party on a derisory minority of votes. And then there is Scotland, and how many Scot Nats win Westminster seats. Of course we cannot forget Wales and Ulster and how their nationalist MPs might choose to vote in confidence motions. And then there is this business of English votes for English laws.

Never in history has the electorate of this country faced such a potential muddle. The wonder will be if we get an effective government of any complexion. The mere fact that it can govern at all may be seen as a triumph.