Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

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Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S          Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.K.

There is reliable evidence that the Islamic State is suffering under continuous air strikes. Up till now these have been predominantly American. Recently Jordan launched a substantial number of attacks on its own initiative using what it described as dozens of aircraft in reprisal for the brutal killing of its young pilot. Now we learn that Egypt has immediately attacked from the air IS bases, following the execution of a number of its citizens, all coptic Christians. This is a very significant development because both Egypt and Jordan are predominantly Sunni, as is the Islamic State.

For a while IS was doing very well militarily and in the more subtle, but no less important, propaganda campaign. Now things look less good for them. It is impossible to win a modern military campaign without air power if the other side has it. IS had to secure the territory and the allegiance of Sunnis before enemies with air power became active. Not only has this not happened but now the Sunnis themselves are turning against it. It has always been the view of this blog that western intervention played against its own interests and to the IS tune and that it was the Arabs themselves who would need to sort things out. This is because it is an Arab war invoking a clash of different ideologies within the many threads of Islam.

There are signs that this is starting to happen.