One poll has significantly narrowed the NO lead to 2%. It may be a rogue or it may be the start of a trend. There do seem to be signs that the YES campaign is picking up speed. I had thought they had lost it, but maybe not. We have little to no experience of national referenda in the UK, so comparison with ordinary elections may not work. It is after all a simple question; it does not involve trusting people to lead you. Once you have grasped the issue, choice is easy to match with your inclination. Perhaps this is done as easily at the last minute as early in the campaign.
I have friends who want change, but will vote NO because they think AV is a bad system. I have sympathy with that view. I do think it is important to ensure that all MPs go the Commons only if they have a majority of the votes cast. I argued this in my book 2010 Blueprint For Change. I also argued for a second ballot, or run off , as it is sometimes called. The snag is two elections within one campaign. The advantage is absolute clarity and total voter support for the result.
Those old enough to remember the Fourth Republic after WWII in France will recall a chaotic election structure based on proportional representation, which produced a Chamber of Deputies more akin to a fractious mob than a means of government. Indeed the Prime Minister in office when you sat down to breakfast, was generally gone by afternoon tea. All but the most obscure politicians had enjoyed a spell as Prime Minister; a few survived for months, most only for weeks and some for just hours. Needles to say, this was not France’s golden age. Then came De Gaulle. He produced a new Constitution and a different electoral system. The Fifth Republic has made France one of the best governed and most successful countries in Europe and in the world. The run off second ballot is at the core of their electoral process.
This is what we should be voting for on May 5th. It remains to be seen what we think of the cheap option on offer.