Clearly there is unlikely to be a military solution to the Libya crisis which does not cost many civilian lives. This is what UNSCR 1973 is designed to prevent. NATO, now in command, takes account of the letter and the spirit of the resolution, has ruled out arming the rebels, says that the arms embargo applies to all sides and is more risk averse of collateral damage than the previous American led Franco/British command structure of the early days. Meanwhile Gaddaffi’s forces are adapting to the air strikes, fighting back and gaining ground. However, they will not be able to mount an assault on Benghazi, without being subject to air attack. Meanwhile the rebels have no professional military capability and any march on Tripoli will be beaten back. This now looks like stalemate and, as Gaddafi warned, could be a long war.
A long war would be fatal for Cameron’s premiership. The people have not forgotten Blair. They will not allow another military entanglement. Suddenly Hague looks confident, sounds assertive and appears to be calling the shots. At the beginning he was lacklustre and fumbling. Commentators wondered if he was on his way out. Not now.
Having been very hesitant at the outset, Robert Gates has now declared that the U.S. is not up for nation building in Libya post Gaddafi, or East Libya if it ends up split. Moreover the U.S. administration, pleased with the initial success in halting Gaddafi’s march without mercy eastwards to Benghazi and having handed over to NATO, is now backing off in the face of Congressional anxiety and hostile U.S. public opinion.
This offers the British foreign office, with its myriad contacts across the Middle East and among ex-pat refugees from Gaddafi, together with its, until recently, very much better relations with Libyan Government than the U.S., an opportunity to sort out a diplomatic resolution to the chaos. Hague has taken charge from Cameron of what happens next. Moussa Koussa arrives, an aide to Gaddafi’s son has been and gone, clearly things are going on behind the scenes as commentators everywhere and especially on the ground in the battle zone, see a deal as the way, the only way, forward. If Hague can pull it off, Cameron will owe him big time.
Cameron will then survive, but he will not recover. The Tory party, badly disquieted by what has happened, will look along the government front bench and see the leader it prefers. One day Hague may make it to Downing Street after all.