The NO campaign is doing very well. It is pulling into an unstoppable lead in the opinion polls. This does not mean it cannot be stopped, but it will be difficult. It is by far the better campaign with the clearest message. Yet a year ago, the YES campaign would have won easily. As it is an issue not related to government unpopularity over cuts, it is not at first clear what has happened. Is it all to do with Nick Clegg and tuition fees? No, but that is part of it, because it exposed the difficulty of being part of a coalition, especially if the junior partner. It is not even about the potential change in the voting system. It is about change itself.
It is very interesting that opinion polls are also showing a Tory advance at Labour’ expense. One or two show them neck and neck. It is even more interesting that all conservatives are against the proposed change and that most conservatives (note the small c) are Tory though a good few, especially in the unions, are Labour. Conservatives are traditionally against change for change’s sake. Cameron’s mistake last May was to talk about the Big Society, educational reform and so forth. Had he talked about getting the economy sorted out and making everything else work properly, he would have had a workable majority. Since then the voters support the cuts and the pain, but worry about free schools, too many academies, messing with the NHS, elected police chiefs and futile wars. The British, but especially the English, dislike change.
Because of the MPs’ expense scandal, the voters last May distrusted all politicians and put a plague on all their houses. They did not want any party to have a majority. They wanted compromise. Compromise has happened, but its handmaiden has been, for Lib Dem idealists (most Lib Dems are idealists), betrayal. Betrayal attends all coalition politics. Parties have to eat their words to govern. Most European countries are happy with that. The English (this is about the English), having tasted this fare, do not.
If they vote NO on May 5th, they will be voting NO not just to AV (it is cheaper but very inferior to the much more decisive run-off second round), but to multi party politics. It will be a disaster to the Lib Dems, but also the Greens and UKIP. None will stand a chance in government unless Labour and Tory seats are very closely matched. It will not be a statement against coalition , but it will be a statement that coalition must take place within the political parties before they are elected. On election day the people then know what they are voting for and what is promised.
They do not have to tolerate broken promises and especially not broken, signed, pledges. The price is wild bust ups at party conferences between elections, with rows, defections and dramas. Remember the Bennites? Or Scargill? Or the Eurosceptics? Or the Wets? Much blood flows. But come the day the nation votes, they all have to agree a manifesto and stand in line to be counted. Just once. Hitherto that is how the nation has preferred the dynamic of its politics in elections to the Mother of Parliaments. Soon we shall know if this is how it wishes to continue.