As predicted in this Blog (post 16 April), the Pentagon was moving to this decision. As yet, I suspect, Gaddafi is not a target. Precision strikes at urban concentrations of government armour will be the most likely start. Nevertheless in addition to known deficiencies of this adventure (no clear objective, no exit strategy) we now have mission creep. This is because, as so many warned, the NATO mission is not working. It may even be prolonging the war. Cameron, Sarkozy and Obama claim it is saving civilian lives. Maybe, but if it prolongs the war, maybe, or even certainly, not.
Meanwhile the suffering among civilians in the contested areas, in particular besieged Misrata, this human suffering, especially among the innocent, is beginning to make headlines and shock. A ceasefire is essential, but the Rebels refuse, because they think with NATO they may win, or at worst they cannot lose their gains thus far. The Big Three have boxed everybody in with their declarations that Gaddafi has to go. They offer no deal. Worse, they declare an outcome excluded from the military mission.
This is becoming as bad a military mess as the others. As things stand today there are only two strategies which will halt the fighting. The first is to point the drones at the Gaddafi government in defiance of UN1973. The other is to tell the Rebels they either agree a ceasefire or the NATO mission will stop. Otherwise, as Gaddafi said at the beginning, this will be a long war. A long war, for civilians, is the worst option of all.