Hammond’s upcoming budget can certainly break the government, even if it totters on in a political trance for the time being. If we get another white van man blunder, or if a major new funding initiative turns out to be robbing Peter to pay Paul, or some other issue arises as the small print is read, the level of incompetence of governance will pass the point of no return.
On the other hand if Hammond surprises with a major economic boost covering infrastructure development, affordable housing, funding the NHS, Education, Prisons and Social Care, he will have bought time for the rest of the Cabinet to sort out the chaos and opacity of Brexit. Neither the EU, nor the country, nor it appears the government, has even now any idea what kind of Brexit we are seeking to achieve.
But even if there were no such thing as Brexit, this budget would be critical because, nine years after the 2008 Crash, we are still trapped in crisis level austerity and flatlining growth. Living standards for the majority are falling. Public services are cut to the bone. So Brexit is a self inflicted extra problem. The underlying problem of an economy which does not create new wealth for all to share, but recycles money from the poor to the rich, will remain until somebody decides to do something. Will it be Phil?