Up to till now the Trump Presidency has been rather difficult for those outside the US to fathom. It is a fact that at home his power base holds firm and still backs him, but the majority who do not like his presidency are showing signs of stirring to the point of voting en masse for the Democrats in the mid-terms next year. So it is not an exaggeration to say that the perceived wisdom among political commentators across the world is that he is a one term president and if the Russia probe finds a smoking gun, not even that. Even this blog, which dislikes Trump’s conservatism and red neck tendencies, but strongly supports the strategic vision proclaimed in his campaign for the presidency, has begun to wonder how long he can last.
But it looks to me as if the Asia tour is a game changer. Because now we can see much better where he is headed and we can see it without peering through a fog a special prosecutors, leaks to the media, spats in the White House and disclosures in the new York Times. And what we see turns many decades of US statecraft, lecturing and demanding and getting not very far, on its head. Now we have a transactional approach which puts America First (we knew about that but not what it meant), but lets everybody else do their thing as long as it does not damage America.
Unlike his predecessors he has praised China’s achievements and struck up a good working partnership with Xi Jinping. There has been no mention of human rights and, the big surprise, no blame upon the Chinese for exploiting its trade relations with the US. Rather, that is all the fault of previous US administrations. He has walked away from the collapsing model of free trade and opted for one which favours the US first. China is welcome to become the champion of the old model, which suits it so well. Of course the prize is China’s help with North Korea.
But it does not stop there. Not only does Trump have a good working relationship with Xi Jinping, he, clearly to close observers, has one with Putin. Because of the Russia mania at home he has to keep this under wraps but if you look at pictures of the two together you see the knowing familiarity of friends and partners, not the cold formality of enemies. So for the first time since WWII we have a US with a pragmatic foreign policy which wants to fix things not to fan them and is on matey terms with both Beijiing and Moscow. So this is a game changer not just for America, but for the world. Unlike those whose schooling on world affairs is steeped in Cold War ideology and habits, this Blog thinks this is a positive step in the right direction.
It is still the case that the President has many enemies at home and works in a fetid atmosphere of accusers and suspicion, with a Congress unable thus far to deliver on his promises on Obamacare, tax cuts or infrastructure renewal. But America always backs a president who walks tall abroad. That will change the politics at home. The only downer is that France’s President Macron is America’s only friend in Europe at the moment. But in America’s twenty-first century world, Europe is no longer the key.