Archive for November 12th, 2017

Brexit Negotiations: A Cabinet In Crisis

Sunday, November 12th, 2017

Never before has the British Government been so divided on the central issue it is mandated to resolve. This is why the Brexit negotiations are so cumbersome and why they cannot succeed. There are only two broad options open. It is not difficult.

The EU is a remarkable Union of 27 sovereign states, or independent national democracies sharing common citizenship and rights of domicile, free borderless trade with common business, medical, financial and security regulations and rules enshrined in European law, which takes precedence over national law.  There is a parliament with members elected by universal suffrage across the union, a council which consists of the elected ministers from every country and a civil service responsible for implementation known as the Commission. For most member states, but not all, there is a single common currency.

This Union is not perfect but it represents the greatest political achievement since the fall of the Roman Empire, and, especially poignant on Remembrance Sunday, has brought a previously unknown level of peace and stability to the continent of Europe and the United Kingdom. The UK, however, has voted to leave.

There are two ways in which this can be done and two ways only. The first is to cut all ties and leave. The potential economic cost, curtailment of freedoms of travel and domicile and the impact on living standards have not been quantified, nor calculated nor even forensically examined. But only a tiny handful of ideologues suppose this country will be better off and not a single one of them, beyond a few vacuous soundbites, has been able to convincingly demonstrate how.

The second way, known as soft Brexit, is the Norway model. Essentially this means we remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union. All the other freedoms of movement, trade and domicile remain, borders are friction-less. There would be no border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. British politicians would cease to have any say, or share in the process of how the EU was run or what its rules were.

At present the government is split down the middle between hard and soft with neither giving ground, but all striving for some fantasy ‘individual’ deal that is simply not on offer, not least because it would never be agreed by all 26 of the remaining members. So the choice is clear and stark. Hard or Soft? The majority in Parliament and in the country do not want either because they have been promised what cannot be delivered. When that becomes clear this whole folly will collapse and with it the party which led the nation into this ridiculous cul-de-sack.

So it really matter not a fig how many scandalized and failing ministers are fired or whether May stays or goes. They are all for the chop in the end anyway.