Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

This Blog fully endorses Bob Geldof’s action in returning his Freedom to Dublin in protest at the conduct of his fellow freeman, Aung San Suu Kyi. The fact that this peace Ikon stands silent while her military conduct ethnic cleansing on a massive scale, reveals just have mistaken the world has been in ascribing near sainthood to this ruthless, self-centered politician, about whom I held the gravest suspicions from the beginning of her projection onto the world stage. There were moments when I felt that perhaps I had judged her too harshly. Those moments are gone.

All over the world her honours are being cancelled and withdrawn and rightly so. At one level her acquiescence to these atrocities is almost more shocking to the many world figures, who for long worshiped at her feet, than the atrocities themselves. Nevertheless this dreadful military campaign leading to an unprecedented diaspora, has created a humanitarian crisis in which the world at large, once again, will have to come forward and pick up the pieces. Her pieces.

Never before has the British Government been so divided on the central issue it is mandated to resolve. This is why the Brexit negotiations are so cumbersome and why they cannot succeed. There are only two broad options open. It is not difficult.

The EU is a remarkable Union of 27 sovereign states, or independent national democracies sharing common citizenship and rights of domicile, free borderless trade with common business, medical, financial and security regulations and rules enshrined in European law, which takes precedence over national law.  There is a parliament with members elected by universal suffrage across the union, a council which consists of the elected ministers from every country and a civil service responsible for implementation known as the Commission. For most member states, but not all, there is a single common currency.

This Union is not perfect but it represents the greatest political achievement since the fall of the Roman Empire, and, especially poignant on Remembrance Sunday, has brought a previously unknown level of peace and stability to the continent of Europe and the United Kingdom. The UK, however, has voted to leave.

There are two ways in which this can be done and two ways only. The first is to cut all ties and leave. The potential economic cost, curtailment of freedoms of travel and domicile and the impact on living standards have not been quantified, nor calculated nor even forensically examined. But only a tiny handful of ideologues suppose this country will be better off and not a single one of them, beyond a few vacuous soundbites, has been able to convincingly demonstrate how.

The second way, known as soft Brexit, is the Norway model. Essentially this means we remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union. All the other freedoms of movement, trade and domicile remain, borders are friction-less. There would be no border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. British politicians would cease to have any say, or share in the process of how the EU was run or what its rules were.

At present the government is split down the middle between hard and soft with neither giving ground, but all striving for some fantasy ‘individual’ deal that is simply not on offer, not least because it would never be agreed by all 26 of the remaining members. So the choice is clear and stark. Hard or Soft? The majority in Parliament and in the country do not want either because they have been promised what cannot be delivered. When that becomes clear this whole folly will collapse and with it the party which led the nation into this ridiculous cul-de-sack.

So it really matter not a fig how many scandalized and failing ministers are fired or whether May stays or goes. They are all for the chop in the end anyway.

Up to till now the Trump Presidency has been rather difficult for those outside the US to fathom. It is a fact that at home his power base holds firm and still backs him, but the majority who do not like his presidency are showing signs of stirring to the point of voting en masse for the Democrats in the mid-terms next year. So it is not an exaggeration to say that the perceived wisdom among political commentators across the world is that he is a one term president and if the Russia probe finds a smoking gun, not even that. Even this blog, which dislikes Trump’s conservatism and red neck tendencies, but strongly supports the strategic vision proclaimed in his campaign for the presidency, has begun to wonder how long he can last.

But it looks to me as if the Asia tour is a game changer. Because now we can see much better where he is headed and we can see it without peering through a fog a special prosecutors, leaks to the media, spats in the White House and disclosures in the new York Times. And what we see turns many decades of US statecraft, lecturing and demanding and getting not very far, on its head. Now we have a transactional approach which puts America First (we knew about that but not what it meant), but lets everybody else do their thing as long as it does not damage America.

Unlike his predecessors he has praised China’s achievements and struck up a good working partnership with Xi Jinping. There has been no mention of human rights and, the big surprise, no blame upon the Chinese for exploiting its trade relations with the US. Rather, that is all the fault of previous US administrations. He has walked away from the collapsing model of free trade and opted for one which favours the US first. China is welcome to become the champion of the old model, which suits it so well. Of course the prize is China’s help with North Korea.

But it does not stop there. Not only does Trump have a good working relationship with Xi Jinping, he, clearly to close observers, has one with Putin. Because of the Russia mania at home he has to keep this under wraps but if you look at pictures of the two together you see the knowing familiarity of friends and partners, not the cold formality of enemies. So for the first time since WWII we have a US with a pragmatic foreign policy which wants to fix things not to fan them and is on matey terms with both Beijiing and Moscow. So this is a game changer not just for America, but for the world.  Unlike those whose schooling on world affairs is steeped in Cold War ideology and habits, this Blog thinks this is a positive step in the right direction.

It is still the case that the President has many enemies at home and works in a fetid atmosphere of accusers and suspicion, with a Congress unable thus far to deliver on his promises on Obamacare, tax cuts or infrastructure renewal. But America always backs a president who walks tall abroad. That will change the politics at home. The only downer is that France’s  President Macron is America’s only friend in Europe at the moment. But in America’s twenty-first century world, Europe is no longer the key.

At the heart of the British State lies a secret to keep which a cabal of shadowy establishment figures is authorised to kill.  A gripping narrative taking place in the modern day with a cast of ruthless characters determined to kill their way to victory.  A sophisticated thriller of unusual pace and power written in an edgy modern style. Over 400 pages.

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Her government is taking water certainly. It is not certain if it will sink, nor when. But that it is not a normal functioning government is beyond all doubt. The appointment of Penny Mordant to fill Priti Patel’s vacant post makes sense if you like the idea of an even balance in the Cabinet between Leave and Remain. But the problem with that is this. In the most important political even in our peacetime history, a government equally split into opposite positions on all the fundamental details and expectations is one which  cannot function.

It becomes, in the trending words of a rather clever commentator, a fake government. In the end  fakes fail.

President Trump suffered major defeats in Virginia because Democrats turned out in force. Likewise in new Jersey. This is an important moment because it shows that the aura of Trump invincibility is false. He won the Presidency by losing the popular vote by a fair margin, but carried the Electoral College.  There are fewer Republicans than Democrats and if the latter have confidence in their candidate they are likely to win.  Put simply, if this is replicated in the mid-terms in 2018 Trump will lose control (does he have it?) on Capitol Hill and in 2020 he will lose the White House.

But a lot can happen between now and then. If Trump can sort out North Korea, Obamacare and Tax Cuts, all of which are promised, then he could be too big a nut for the Democrats to crack. But if the Republican party continues to bicker and obstruct and none of the big ticket promises come through, the Trump Presidency will end in 2020.

He is unpopular in Western Europe, but liked in the Arab world by the Sunni arm of Islam and in the Far East. He has strong ties with Japan and adequate relations with South Korea. He has struck up a close and productive relationship with China’s leader and if he were allowed to pursue it, he already has one with Putin. He has offered meaningful negotiations to Kim Jon Un. Properly developed this could make Trump a formidable operator on the world stage, cutting deals and fixing problems. And that makes a powerful President of the type American adore.

So do not write off Trump yet. The wild cards are the Russia probe and North Korea. Either could change everything. For better or for worse.

At the heart of the British State lies a secret to keep which a cabal of shadowy establishment figures is authorised to kill. At the centre of the drama is a family with baggage from the past which has access to the truth and determines to expose it. That provokes a battle of wits among security services on both sides of the Atlantic, with links into Russia, Germany, France and Africa. A gripping narrative taking place in the modern day with a cast of ruthless characters determined to kill their way to victory. Male and female, old and young, engaging yet sinister, none quite what they seem. A sophisticated thriller of unusual pace and power written in an edgy modern style. Over 400 pages.

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The Foreign Secretary is a disaster in his job, widely regarded as the worst since WWII and a danger to our national interests. Fallon has gone in a storm of sexual accusations. Damian Green is under investigation. Priti Patel  may not last the day. The Brexit negotiations are in crisis, not because of the EU, but because the Cabinet is rent with discord over the type of Brexit it wants. The Chancellor and the Prime Minister are said to be at daggers drawn and can only meet with officials present to keep their rows from getting out of hand. The NHS is now demanding that the red bus Brexit promise about more funding be honoured.

What is required is that the gropers, sex pests, hard Brexit ideologues and complete incompetents are fired and a new government formed, either in coalition or with cross party support, to oraganise and negotiate a sensible, workable and realistic Brexit which will not damage the national economic interest. For a Brexit which puts the economy first, the majority in the Commons and the Lords is overwhelming. Either that or cancel the whole Brexit folly. It is not an option to carry on as we are. What the situation and the country cries out for is leadership. Strong leadership. This was the central theme of May’s offer to voters in June.

Now is her time to show it.

One of the many Trump catch phrases, which have much more powerful resonance with the American people than his opponents realise, is ‘Keep America Safe’. Well, the mass slaughter in Texas, coming on top of Las Vegas, with an endless string of senseless mass murders queuing up behind, demonstrate that the United States is the most dangerous developed country for civilians to live in anywhere in the world and ten times more dangerous than Europe. That takes account of terrorism from external forces like IS.

Calls for gun control are pointless. The enshrined principle in the US Constitution that citizens have a birthright to carry arms is a fatal fault in the structure of the American State. It is impossible to take it away, because too many would see it as an assault on the freedom which defines their country. Yet when it was enshrined the weapons of those days and their power to kill  bore no relationship to the killing machines now available to be legally held in every hand.

On the present trajectory things can only get worse. They are approaching a point when the good people will have to be armed in the street to take down instantly the bad hell bent on killing. The cost of vast numbers of additional police will be beyond reason, so citizen deputies will be the last resort. The only thing that will reverse this unstoppable drift will be not regulation, but a sea change in social attitudes and a profound re-appraisal of what it is to be American and what freedom in fact means.

Americans must work this out for themselves.  There is hope. The birthright of whites to own and trade slaves was dealt with. Now it is time for the guns. All 300 million of them. Dealing with the slavery issue cost hundreds of thousands of lives in a bloody civil war. Fixing the guns has to be not about taking life but about saving it. It is perhaps the greatest challenge in America’s history thus far, because it invades the sanctity and rights of every American home. But in America everything is possible. THAT is what America is.

Gradually over the decades social attitudes to women have advanced beyond all recognition and their true value as the equals, in many cases and circumstances the superiors, to men is now almost universally accepted. Of course there are entrenched pockets of resistance in all walks of life, Hollywood for example, but bit by bit the best practices of progressive thinkers are breaking down the barriers. Except in Parliament and the Westminster Village. Here there has for decades been a culture of misogyny, exploitation and abuse, at best laddish and at worst criminal. It has been entrenched, protected, denied, nurtured and seemingly in place forever. Until suddenly the lid of this cauldron of all that is worst of such a system, blew off.

Now there is little short of chaos. Impeccable figures of the political establishment have toppled form ‘steady and a safe pair of hands’ to ‘disgusting’ almost overnight. The Cabinet seems to be engaged in a war between male and female members to add to the other war between hard and soft Brexiteers, resignations and rumours come thick and fast, government is impaired, all parties are caught up and nobody knows what will happen next. Like all revolutions this one is unpredictable and out of control.

Setting down a sensible way forward would for this blog be a waste of time at this stage. But some warnings are due. First, now the lid has blown, we must let everything flow. Allegations, rumours, crimes, all have to be set out to clear the fetid atmosphere and allow reforms to be put in place. Now is not the time to try and shut the issues down.

Second there must be distinction between three levels of behaviour; the criminal, which is for the police, the exploitative or abusive which is for some form of parliamentary discipline; and the vulgar, laddish and inappropriate, which should be subject to destruction by publicity.

Above all there has to be an impartial system to listen, mend and protect victims, who must know beyond all doubt that a genuine complaint cannot prejudice or in any way adversely affect their status, their prospects or their ambitions.