Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

This very interesting development has been more or less eclipsed by recent events connected to our EU referendum, but it is worth commenting on, not least because the theme coincides with the position I have promoted publicly for the last seven years.

The German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier chided NATO for war mongering because of its latest  exercise in Poland. He asserts that needling Russia with military exercises on its border is counter productive, inflames tensions and does nothing to secure regional security. He is quite right. When the Soviet Union collapsed its counter to NATO, the Warsaw Pact, was  dismantled. The West’s refusal to do the same to NATO and at the same time not to invite Russia to become a full member was a throwback to Versailles in 1919, and a far cry from the enlightened treatment of West Germany after 1945.

History teaches many lessons but it is history. We understood that the emerging Germany was not that of Hitler and needed a different approach to bring it into an alliance focused on peace not war. We did not, and still do not, see that modern Russia, which now enjoys some degree of democracy for the first time in its history, is not that of Stalin. This is in part because Russia likes strong leaders at all times and found themselves Putin, whereas the West prefers to shuffle a pack of political nonentities to lead them and only now and again come up with a Churchill, a Roosevelt, a Thatcher or a De Gaulle.  Britain had a go with Blair but he is now very damaged goods, suggesting strong leaders are a bad idea. So Putin is made out to be an ogre when he is no such thing (though neither is he an angel) and Western foreign and diplomatic policy is blundering through its greatest period of failures in modern times.

It is interesting that Germany, yes Germany, has decided to blow the whistle. Watch this space.

Turn Left To Power is an explosive dissertation in book form offering a fundamental redirection for Labour’s return to power, with bold ideas for a new economic and social settlement, including economic and taxation reform, restoration of responsibility in government and a renewal of democracy. Full of detailed information, hard facts and the results of thorough research and deep thinking, the narrative will grip you like a thriller and open your eyes to a brighter, fairer future in a mere 25000 words. The ideas are relevant whether Brexit goes In or Out. Frank and at a times brutal, Turn Left To Power offers a collection of fundamental reforms which amount to a political revolution which can propel Labour back to government in 2020.

Check it out now. Paperback £4.99   Kindle £1.99     AMAZON UK

As the campaign resumes following the dreadful murder of Jo Cox by someone calling themselves Death to Traitors Freedom for Britain, there is  evidence that the surge in the polls enjoyed recently by Leave is ebbing. According to experts who follow referenda around the world, this is normal. Often, but not always, people flirt with change, then shrink from it. Nevertheless the result either way looks close and difficult to call. So it could still be a Brexit win.

That could be very messy, which is why markets are worried. In the UK a referendum has no constitutional authority and the result is only advisory to parliament. Parliament must pass legislation to put the outcome into effect if it is Leave. The snag is there is a significant cross party majority among MPs for Remain. If the result were close, say 49.5 Remain, 50.5 Leave, parliament may not endorse it. In any event there is likely to be a political crisis threatening Cameron and his Chancellor, Osborne. If there is a big majority in the country for Leave and parliament decides to accept the verdict, the Cameron government would almost certainly fall and be replaced with Leave ministers who might not themselves survive a vote of confidence.

The negotiations to disentangle from Europe and negotiate a new trade deal could take two years, possibly four and the worst estimate is fifteen, because all business regulations, emission controls, criminal codes etc are EU wide. Just walking away and pushing through Parliament new legislation in contravention of EU treaties would expose the potential for massive legal challenges at political, corporate and personal levels. Of course this is GB and it might all sort itself out smoothly over a cup of tea, but the potential for both political and financial chaos is very real. It is that which is spooking the markets. They are geared for that sort of thing in the likes of Greece and even Italy, but not GB. Even the Fed is concerned.

Remember this is all happening in a country with no codified constitution, where absolute sovereignty rests with parliament. Technically that is ceded from the monarch, but in this case that is irrelevant. Essentially parliament is the constitution and can change it as it goes. But for once nobody is sure where it is going or what will happen. Cameron was wrong to call this referendum to try and head off UKIP as well as to appease his right wing. It has been hugely damaging to the social and political equilibrium and unless he wins big, not only will his leadership be challenged, probably successfully, but he will go down in history as a name to remember for all the wrong reasons.

And then there is Scotland. There is a real possibility that Scotland, which is legally a separate country in a voluntary Union with England, will vote Remain.  This could lead to legal challenges as to what Scotland’s status actually was, if it wanted to stay in the EU. It could also deal the separatists the card they have been waiting for. So whatever government is trying to survive in London would have to try and hold the Union together and negotiate an exit from the EU as well as new trade deals across the world. But who would sign without knowing the longevity of the entity to which they were being asked to commit? If anyone supposes that markets will like all that, they need to think again. A vote for Leave may be a vote afterwards regretted. Patriotism is noble and leads to worthy things but nationalism has a dark heart and most often ends in disaster.

Turn Left To Power is an explosive dissertation in book form offering a fundamental redirection for Labour’s return to power, with bold ideas for a new economic and social settlement, including economic and taxation reform, restoration of responsibility in government and a renewal of democracy. Full of detailed information, hard facts and the results of thorough research and deep thinking, the narrative will grip you like a thriller and open your eyes to a brighter, fairer future in a mere 25000 words. The ideas are relevant whether Brexit goes In or Out.

Malcolm Blair-Robinson, writer and blogger,  has been a keen political observer for more than sixty years. Born a Tory, he became a founder member of the SDP, before gradually migrating left. In 2014 he published his idea of Dynamic Quantitative Easing which aroused interest in high places and this forms a core element of this powerful and compact analysis of Labour’s opportunity to regain power. Frank and at a times brutal, Turn Left To Power offers a collection of fundamental reforms which amount to a political revolution. He is dismayed by the unfairness of the current economic model and is driven by the hope of a better future for the rising generation.

Get your copy now. Paperback £4.99   Kindle £1.99     AMAZON UK

A bunch of State Department officials have signed a declaration claiming that Obama should bomb Assad targets in Syria, because without that the Dictator will never negotiate. There are several flaws in this unwise proposed intervention.

First of all it is clear that military interventions in the middle east have done more harm than good, with the failed states of Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan as the outcome. Next the defeat of Assad would lead to a collapse of the Syrian state also, with a brutal civil war among the so called victors on the ground, which contain some of the the most radical of the Islamic groups and bitter enemies of the West. A takeover by IS would follow in short order. Russia might directly or by proxy down US planes. Things would get a lot worse than anything thus far and that says something.

With people like this at the heart of the US power base in Washington, the choice of President becomes more critical than might appear out on the campaign trail. The experienced Clinton begins to look more attractive the the gung-ho Trump.

It was until yesterday unthinkable in this country that one of the brightest of our young political stars, a passionate, eloquent campaigning politician, but also a devoted Mum of two young children and a loving wife, who was already earmarked for future high office and leadership, could be shot to death in her constituency by an unhinged loner shouting  ‘Put Britain First’.

But it has happened. We unite to share the grief of this family in their unimaginable pain; we unite to condemn a crime few can comprehend; we unite to celebrate a very remarkable life cut short and we must unite to later ask the question of ourselves, what have we done to our country that such a thing can be?

But for now it is time to pause and reflect. Posts on this blog will resume when that has happened.

Turn Left To Power is an explosive dissertation in book form offering a fundamental redirection for Labour’s return to power, with bold ideas for a new economic and social settlement, including economic and taxation reform, restoration of responsibility in government and a renewal of democracy. Full of detailed information, hard facts and the results of thorough research and deep thinking, the narrative will grip you like a thriller and open your eyes to a brighter, fairer future in a mere 25000 words. The ideas are relevant whether Brexit goes In or Out. Frank and at a times brutal, Turn Left To Power offers a collection of fundamental reforms which amount to a political revolution which can propel Labour back to government in 2020.

Check it out now. Paperback £4.99   Kindle £1.99     AMAZON UK

You will notice the plural in the headline. This is deliberate. On the one hand you have the trauma and grief of those caught in this mindless atrocity and this blog can do no more than declare solidarity, kinship and sympathy with all those brave people whose lives have been torn apart. Sympathy too for the whole American nation whose confidence and pride in itself is shaken but not shattered by this assault upon its values, its integrity and its purpose.

But then we come to the political aftermath. Here America can, as it did post 9/11 squander the international goodwill flooding towards it from all across the globe, by vengeful and incoherent responses which do no better than make matters worse. Top of that list would be some kind of assault upon the freedoms and dignity of US Muslims, or restrictions of entry of Muslim visitors from overseas. That would make no more sense than curbing the rights of Christians because Hitler was nominally one of them. Next would be some increase in air bombardment of towns held by IS, which always kills civilians and is precisely the reaction IS hope to provoke.

Finally, but significantly, to fail to bring some kind of restriction into force about who can own guns, of what power and for what purpose. It is this failure in gun control which baffles the whole world and does more than anything else to deaden the power of American influence. It makes the tracking of potential suspects more difficult than other countries, where lone perpetrators have to access assault weapons and guns via the underworld, which is both monitored and infiltrated by the security services. In the US the killer only has to go into the gun store to kit up for mass murder, transgressing the law only at the moment of launching the attack.

This dreadful event will undoubtedly drive many into supporting Trump for President. But his pronouncements upon it cast serious doubts about whether he is, after all, the right man for the job.

Turn Left To Power is an explosive dissertation in book form offering a fundamental redirection for Labour’s return to power, with bold ideas for a new economic and social settlement, including economic and taxation reform, restoration of responsibility in government and a renewal of democracy. Full of detailed information, hard facts and the results of thorough research and deep thinking, the narrative will grip you like a thriller and open your eyes to a brighter, fairer future in a mere 25000 words. The ideas are relevant whether Brexit goes In or Out.

Malcolm Blair-Robinson, writer and blogger,  has been a keen political observer for more than sixty years. Born a Tory, he became a founder member of the SDP, before gradually migrating left. In 2014 he published his idea of Dynamic Quantitative Easing which aroused interest in high places and this forms a core element of this powerful and compact analysis of Labour’s opportunity to regain power.

Frank and at a times brutal, Turn Left To Power offers a collection of fundamental reforms which amount to a political revolution. He is dismayed by the unfairness of the current economic model and is driven by the hope of a better future for the rising generation.

Get your copy now. Paperback £4.99   Kindle £1.99     AMAZON UK

All or  most polls give Leave the lead and that certainly suggests the tide is turning in Leave’s favour. This is because Remain have overdone their threats of economic meltdown without reminding voters of the historic significance of the EU achievement and the contribution it makes to the quality of life and freedoms we enjoy today. It has failed to counter the wild economic assertions made by Leave including the promised cash splash in our favour if we go, until these ideas are too deeply embedded to be successfully challenged before polling day. Remain started the immigration fear with stupid promises about reducing numbers which cannot be delivered, which Leave now claim can only be delivered if we exit the EU. Which is a false claim because if we want to trade with the EU free movement will be the price. Remain has failed to make the point that we make a profit out of immigration and without it taxes will have to go up.

With just over a week to go there may be a swing back to Remain, Labour voters may mobilise to vote to back the EU, enough young people may have registered to turn the tide, because they rightly see themselves part of something bigger than just the UK as European Citizens able to travel, work and live freely wherever they choose. Or maybe none of that will happen in which case we are marching headlong to the Exit. But Exit to what?

And that is the point. Leave has no idea, but talks in lofty terms about a new Utopia of a free trading nation, rich and independent striding wherever across the globe. Maybe one day. Maybe never. All the financial indicators are set at danger in a global economy once again dangerously over leveraged and out of balance. Brexit will be a major economic shock, not just for the UK, but for Europe and the global financial system. Will it cope? Or does the ghost of Lehman rise before us?

One thing is for sure. If Cameron loses, he is toast. Your problem is so may your job, your prospects and your aspirations be toast too. To get them back you may have to bake a new loaf with different ingredients in the mix. It could taste a lot better. But it will take quite a time. Meanwhile you could get rather hungry.

Think before you vote. It is your choice. But you will have to live not just with it, but in it. For the rest of your life.