Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Irish Bail-Out

It is beginning to look as if the combined power of the EU, the ECB and the IMF has proved too much for the Irish government to resist and that it will have to accept a loan and not wait on chance. Ireland may see this as a loss of sovereignty, but, as previously argued by this Blog, Ireland along with all the others in the Eurozone gave up their economic sovereignty when they joined. It has taken the crisis to make that fact clear.

Britain did not join the Euro, but has to chip in because Ireland is so close to home. Osborne has spotted that an implosion in Ireland would affect us in the U.K because our economy is networked close to that of  Ireland,  so we too are  potentially exposed. It is not just Portugal, Spain and Italy in the firing line. What is also very important is that Ireland has been the very model of cutting on a scale we have not yet begun to imagine.

The borrowing figures for October by the government in mainland Britain to balance its books, though in line with market expectations, drives home the scale of the figures and the gigantic task ahead, not only to cut the deficit, but also to pay off the accumulated debt. Ireland’s experience demonstrates that a robust plan to deal with the deficit/debt challenge may not be sufficient if the money markets decide the bills are just too big. We are in dangerous waters.

This leads me to think that courageous though the Coalition’s programme is, it may not be radical enough to convert us to a bulldog economy and break out of the stricture that one way or another has been around us, sometimes looser, sometimes tighter since the second,  perhaps even the first, world war.  This may be the time when we really do need to think out of the box. The box is the accepted model of the Welfare State, including both the NHS and education and the effect of taxation. Watch this space.

General Petraeus and President Karzai

The general is annoyed with the president because Karzai has criticised the level of violence, especially at night, mostly of U.S forces, in the drive to crush the Taliban. For once I think President Karzai is right.

The Taliban will never be crushed. Even if they are put out of action they will re-emerge. That is the tribal, war lord culture of Afghanistan. Thus General Petraeus’s strategy is self defeating. The more the violence and crushing of Afghans of whatever hue by NATO, the greater the resentment among the innocent population and the more they will side with anyone willing to kick at foreign troops. Moreover when NATO leaves the greater will be the willingness of the so called Security Forces to change sides.

This corrupt and ramshackle government of Afghanistan is, however the government NATO recognises, and the one it helped install and props up in power. Therefore General Petraeus must recognise Karzai’s right to speak out and his authority in doing so. If he does not, the whole enterprise is a sham.

David Cameron and Foreign Policy

In his Mansion House Speech on Monday evening David Cameron, as is the tradition of this annual Prime Ministerial visit to the City of London, set out his, and therefore the government’s, view of the nature of British foreign policy in future. For the first time since the end of the cold war, we heard of a new, pragmatic approach which would put British interests, meaning British economic interests, before everything else.

Being economically strong and commercially active is a far better way to gain influence than, in the modern world, power projection, confrontation and endless lectures about human rights and democracy. At the end of the day the latter two hold little attraction if the price you pay is being blown up when you go to market, starvation through famine, living without electric power and all the other suffering now apparent in countries upon whom the West has sanctimoniously imposed its own government model.

If we start to pay attention to how we can sell to China, Russia, India, Brazil and Turkey, countries sniffed at and largely ignored by officials in the past (if not by enterprising business people) we shall be on the way to reinventing ourselves as a Tiger, or rather a Bulldog economy, which will help to get us out of the horrendous financial mess the latter period of Thatcherism and the entire stewardship of New Labour dumped us into.

Much has to be done at home to make our economy competitive. This is not easy when the government has to borrow one in every four pounds pound it spends and when our total national and private indebtedness is the second largest in the world. The largest, that of the U.S is one and a half times bigger, but its population is bigger by five times. 

That is why we need to get to work to pursue our own interests. The Prime Minister is showing, perhaps to many this is surprising, a refreshingly clear of understanding of what has to be done. He also talked of lack of preparedness for the wars on which we had embarked and a lack of strategic understanding of where they were headed. Good stuff.

A Royal Wedding

Most of the world seems to be rejoicing at the happy news. Whatever their attitude to the institution of monarchy, people love a royal wedding, the stuff of  fairy tales for generations.

In fact a marriage of a direct heir to the throne is in the U.K., nowadays, rare. I have seen three;  the Queen herself, Prince Charles and now Prince William. My father was born when Queen Victoria was still going strong and he died when Elizabeth II had been Queen for six years. During his life there had been six separate monarchs, two queens and four kings. Today anyone under fifty eight has  known only one.

At such a time as this all thoughts are of happiness and to the future. The sombre failure of the last such marriage of Charles and Diana is forgotten. Diana was in no way prepared for a royal marriage which is so much more than an everyday romantic partnership. It is the maintenance of a dynasty, a pillar of the constitution and a key part of the abilty of the state to renew itself. The romantic element is, in all of this, quite incidental. There is some evidence now that Diana was the candidate of her grandmother Lady Fermoy who was close to the Queen Mother. Charles was persuaded, against his better judgement and when not really in love, to take the plunge.

The prospects for William and Kate are altogether better. Not only do the the pair know each other really well and are best friends, but every effort has been made to show Kate all aspects of what it really means to enter that gilded cage where one becomes almost the property of the state and a prisoner of the establishment. She believes she can handle it and all the country thinks she can too.

There is something more. Diana did not find her feet until after the divorce. When she did, she brought a style of royalty the people not only admired, but preferred. She was, as Blair said (and Campbell prompted), the people’s Princess. Almost everyone has a story of a Diana contact or kindess and if they do not have a personal experiece they know someone who does. Diana, cast from the cage, brought monarchy to the people. They loved her for it.

There are signs that Prince William understands that. When his turn comes he will seek to be the people’s king. At his side Kate, or Catherine as she is to be known (will that work?) will be an ideal people’s queen. That will be Diana’s final and lasting legacy.

Paying for Torture

Once George W. Bush went public with his concept that water boarding was not torture (in spite of the fact that the U.S prosecuted Japanese after WWII for just such a crime) the moral high ground of the War on Terror, already in contention, was entirely lost. How America ever got itself a government that threw overboard all the values upon which it is founded, including flying suspects to countries where torture is legal to be interrogated and setting up a prison camp on Cuban soil outside the jurisdiction of the U.S. Constitution, will be wondered at for generations to come. It will be seen as a moral low point;  America’s tackiest hour.

The Labour government was perhaps caught unawares and did not think such things could happen. Or maybe Blair was so in thrall to his own deluded messianic crusade and that anything was allowed to pass. The coming enquiry may tell, or it may not. In any event the Coalition was wise to get shot of it all. For once money has been well spent, though for those whose jobs are going or whose welfare is cut, it will be a bitter pill to swallow. Blair’s legacy is one of the most catastrophic ever to be inflicted upon the British people.

The Euro, Sovereignty and Ireland

The Irish government (as well as the Irish people)  is anxious not to go cap in hand to Europe for a crisis loan, declaring that at present it has no need of funds. Everybody else worries that when it does need money it will not be able to get it from the market, except on ruinous terms, if at all. So the problem which may occur next year has been brought forward to now, putting Portugal, Spain and once again Greece, at risk. There is everywhere talk of contagion. Moreover European leaders have become theatrical in their warnings that if the Euro falls, so does Europe. No small wonder capital markets are spooked. Nevertheless there is some truth in what is being said.

Ireland fears that to take a Euroloan will be to diminish its sovereignty. This is utter rubbish.  Its sovereignty went the day it joined the Euro. This is because it is impossible to have a currency without a government and joining the Euro meant going in with eyes open to that signal fact. Some joined, maybe most, with their eyes shut. Britain did not join for this very reason.

Of course for a long time the ship sailed on in calm seas and all on board partied and made merry. Then came a storm. A truly terrible storm, the like of which none had seen before. To steer the ship in such weather requires not only an enthusiastic crew, but a Captain with fellow officers who know what to do and take charge.

Leaving metaphor and returning to money, this is when the government takes charge of its currency. The problem with the Eurozone is that there is no government. There are all manner of institutions and various Presidents, but none has the power to act unless all the sovereign governments agree. This fluid form of leadership is wholly incompatible with currency control. To beef it up is wholly incompatible with national sovereignty.

The facts are very simple. The Euro is a Federal Currency. All those in it are de facto part of a Federal Europe, whatever illusions of their politicians and whatever misleading propaganda has been tossed at their people. The question now is this. Do the Eurozone countries recognise the reality of their limited sovereignty and ensure that robust and powerful federal economic management is installed, or do the countries retain the power to do as they want?

If they choose to go their own way, the Euro will fail and the warnings from Merkel and others will prove prescient. Europe itself will not fail. The dream of a federal Europe will.  The outcome will be closer to the model preferred by the British. Sovereign countries working together in a single market in which several currencies compete. This might be better for Britain. It would not be better for the rest of Europe. Ireland will have to fall in line.

Eurozone

The waters are, once again, getting choppy.There is not yet a storm, but some on the Euro ship are beginning to feel a touch queasy. The U.K does not have to worry because it is not in the Euro. Well no, but that is not all the story.

To grapple successfully with its own budget deficit and rising debt mountain, Britain has to achieve a huge shift from the public sector, which accounts for over half its GDP; a figure which is an unsustainable burden on the rest of the economy and which will eventually drive it into decline. To achieve this requirement, and it is a requirement, the public sector has to shrink and the private sector grow. Much of this growth will come from exports, a badly neglected area of the economy and many if not most of these will be to the Eurozone. If the countires in it are skint or the Euro is sinking, our goods are difficult to sell and our recovery may shudder to a halt.

Have dealt a wrecking blow to the so called Pigs (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) nervous markets may begin to worry about the U.K, whose budget deficit is the largest in the G20 and whose toatal indebtedness is the second largest in the whole world and nearly five times the world average.

So if we are not feeling queazy about choppy Euro waters, perhaps we should be.

Lord Falconer and the Constitution.

Lord Falconer is a distinguished legal mind and an authority on the Constitution. He was responsible for enabling the very significant constitutional reform giving the country the Ministry of Justice and the Supreme Court. He now wishes to delay the passage through the Lords, and therefore the implementation, of the Constitutional Reform Bill.

This Bill, like so much other modern legislation, is  somewhere between a bodge and a fudge constructed to the lowest common denominator of politicians who are fundamentally in disagreement on the issue. It has, however, been passed by the Commons and for all its imperfections will make our democracy a good deal fairer and better than it is. It is therefore to be applauded. Delay would be a mistake. The people must be given the opportunity to have their say in a Referendum on an improved voting system.

In fact as Lord Falconer and everyone in Westminster knows, there is absolutely no constitutional need for a referendum and this disgraceful and expensive ploy was devised as a sop to the Tory right wing, which hopes the referendum will be lost. There is no reason whatever why the AV voting reform could not simply pass through Parliament like every other reform of the voting system or the constitution thus far in the history of England. Indeed like the Supreme Court.

This is why we need to establish a written Constitution like every other country in the world, save only ourselves, Israel and new Zealand. When it written down for all to see and understand, it cannot be made up, manipulated and generally tinkered with by those who are supposed to defend it. The Constitution should not be the property of the Monarch, Parliament or the Establishment. It is, and in our case must become, the property of the People.

Aung San Suu Kyi, the Chandlers and Freedom.

At a time when news tends to be both disturbing and complicated, the simple and happy release of not one, but three famous captives over the weekend was very heart warming. It was a curious coincidence of timing that both Aung San Suu Kyi and Ron and Rachael Chandler regained their freedom over the same weekend. Both cases are, of course very different. The Burmese political leader had spent three quarters of the last twenty years under house arrest, but well treated, while the Chandlers had been held against their will for a year in a country not on their itinerary, in very poor and at times brutal conditions. This yachting couple were unknown until their capture. Aung San Suu Kyi is one of the most famous women in the world with almost a Mandela aura.

Neither situation is clear cut, nor the drama ended. The Chandlers have huge personal re-adjustments to make and are indebted to friends and family for the ransom which freed them. We all need to ask why it is in the modern age with all the naval force and technology available, an innocent couple cannot cruise in their yacht without fear of capture by pirates on the high sees. A whole regional economy of a failed state is now funded to the tune of $150 million a year by piracy. This has got to be put a stop to and the guilty economy set on a better path. Not enough is being done about this by the international community, especially by NATO, bogged down in Afghanistan in what is now officially accepted as a futile war, while ships and citizens of its members are captured an held to ransom on the ocean.

In Burma, for once, things look more hopeful. Aung San Suu Kyi has put out an olive branch to the generals and greeted, but not inflamed, her supporters. A reconciliation on the lines of South Africa may just be possible. In the West we must help and encourage, but avoid being too shrill about democratic freedom, whilst ignoring the condition of the people it is designed to improve. Democracy is everything to the West, but we need to understand that it is nothing if you are ground to poverty, hunger and disease under its yoke. The mess in Iraq shows that democracy may be the beginning but it is certainly not the end. In South Africa poverty, lawlessness and aids show just how challenging achieving the right end can be.

War without  Victory

The Head of all the U.K’s armed forces, himself a former British commander in Afghanistan, has now said it is not possible to defeat AlQaeda and other terrorist groups, only to contain them. This Blog, along with countless people across the world, has argues this continuously. It is now official. The War on Terror is a dead end.

But it worse than that, because military force involving occupying foreign countries and imposing corrupt and dysfunctional governments on them fans the flames. To contain the threat a quite different, more subtle approach is required. Above all it is necessary to address the core issues which inflame young passions and drive recruits to volunteer their lives to spread terror and destruction among the innocent, whom they see as collectively guilty.

Meanwhile Iraq now has a government with the ruling majority sympathetic to Iran, which brokered the deal to set it up. That does not sound like the kind of victory Bush and Blair had in mind. What a fiasco.