Iran and North Korea
Many will be surprised by the Wikileak disclosure that Arab leaders, namely those of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt would like America to bomb Iran. These are Sunni Arabs who previously regarded Iraq as a bulwark against Shia domination. The outcome of the negotiations to end the impasse in Iraq has produced a Shia government leaning towards Iran in which Sunnis play a part but have limited power. This was not an outcome which the Iraq war was supposed to produce.
These disclosures could harden attitudes towards Iran and its image will be dented by the wider realisation that it has Arab enemies. Nevertheless this Blog remains of the view that there is far too much anxiety about an Iranian nuclear bomb, which has derailed coherent foreign policy, especially in London and Washington, and is in nobody’s interests.This is in part because a younger generation of politicians have forgotten the principles of deterrence.
It is fair, if not desirable, for Iran to have a bomb if it makes it feel safer (not an idle aspiration as the Wikileaks show). It must be told therefore that in that event any first use or attempt at it would bring about a massive nuclear counterstrike which would wipe Iran from the map. This is how the cold war stayed cold and why we are all still here today. The same can be said to North Korea, a missile collaborator with Iran. It was said by Bill Clinton when he was President when he warned Pyongyang that any use of the bomb would ‘mean the end of their country’.
What is emerging from leaks and from a shift from prescriptive style diplomacy towards one based on self interest, is that China and Russia are allies of Europe and America over the twin problems of Iran and North Korea. Officially their pronouncements may look as if they are backing these unpredictable regimes, but in reality they know that they do pose a significant problem. This is not an alliance of ideologies. It is an identity of interest. In this alliance, however, certain elements will be different. Engagement will be the driver, avoidance of military action with unpredictable repercussions and uncertain outcomes will be the thing to avoid and America will not be the only voice, neither will it have the last word.