Mid Term Elections. What has happened.
There are several interpretations of the mid term outcome, depending on your perspective and priorities. At a practical level it was a Republican victory and a defeat for the Obama Presidency. But it was neither a stunning victory nor a shattering defeat. It was not untypical of results at this point in the political cycle. The government has been bashed but not broken. The opposition has been epowerd but its power is limited. The Senate remains with the government. Now compromise and co-operation will be called for.
In 2012 the Republicans can use this advance as a springboard to making Obama a one term President like Bush snr. or Carter. On the other hand if they are fractious and obstructive, it could give Obama a significant electoral advantage. Deep down, however, something else is happening. The ambiguities of the Constitution and therfore the role of the State, are once again to the fore. It is not 1861 and there is not going to be another fight, but the root issue is the same. It is this.
America is an idea, an ideal and a dream. It was made by pioneers who came to it, not indigenous people who were there already. The settlers suffered, endured and toiled to be free. In America freedom is fundamental and given a fundamentalist interpretation. The United States is a structure of authority which at the fundamental level is un- American. This gnawing folk memeory lies dormant for generations but when challenged, stirs. It is stirring now.
The most left wing incumbent at the White House in economic and social policy in the history of the United States was Franklin D. Roosevelt. Until Obama. FDR tackled the Depression with Federal borrowing and Federal programmes. Such was the crisis that his popularity grew, though WWII extended his Presidency well beyond its natural cycle. Obama has embraced the same corporate approach, but such is the scale, nature and structural fault in the economic model, that so far things are not improving. Americans are paying a very big government bill, but so far the government is not delivering the promised sunlit upland. Interestingly the Democrats have lost the biggest number of seats in the House since 1938, mid FDR’s third term.
In the main the Republicans were energised by the Tea Party. The Tea Party is against big Federal government. Except for a common foreign policy and currency and a common defense, this radical movement sees no need of such a thing and certainly does not want to pay for it. There is perfectly good governance of all life’s essentials, State by State. The era of the Unites States is may be drawing to a close. America, the dream, will always be is. But more and more Americans now hark back to the earlier nostrum of the United States are.
The next two years will tell us where America is headed. President Obama’s place in history may be more pivotal than people presently think.