Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Ireland and the U.K. and Debt

So Britain has gone to the aid of a friend in need. Meanwhile the friend’s troubles grow. The government totters. The bail-out is to the tune of 127 billion euros. Even that may not be enough. Worries surface about whether a small economy can ever hope to repay such staggering sums. We should worry too. Our debts are much bigger, but, at the moment anyway, our credit rating is top notch.

It is a moment to reinforce a point of arithmetic principle, even if to do so, is to sound like a shrill, admonishing, maiden aunt. The principle is this. Money is a measurement. It is not an entity on its own. It cannot, literally, be made. When people talk about making money they are using a figure of speech, like the sky falling in. It is not a statement of fact.

We have learned that quantitative easing is when a Central Bank  creates electronic money to buy real assets, usually government bonds. This generates money balances which flow into the financial system, which simply did not exist the day before. This process is used with caution as, because it does not represent a real increase in wealth, it debases the currency and if overdone will cause the currency to collapse.

Unfortunately in the modern world it is possible for everyone, not just governments, to do this by artificially inflating assets such as property and then borrowing real money from abroad against them.  Thus a house is bought for £100,000. A little later the same house is said to be worth £400,000. The excited owners, feeling themselves wealthy, borrow against the inflated value of their asset, under a process misleadingly described as equity release. Let us say they spend this on goods and equipment made in China, which also supplied the cash for the loan. The money from the goods immediately flows back to China, as do all the repayments on the loan.

Here is the nub. That money for those repayments has to be earned, because in the beginning the property owners did not have it. So now they have not only to earn enough to repay what they did not have, but also the charges, called interest, added on. The value in their lovely new goods and stuff has already gone to China in the purchase price. The property owners have neither the money, nor the value. This is why they have to set about earning real money to pay.

Of course they think they have the asset. But the true value of the house remains £100, 000. If they chose to sell now, they may get the £400,000 of its inflated value, but they may not if others need to sell at the same time. If  lots of others need to sell the value of the house will fall back to its true value, which is about 3 times the income of the person  for whom such a property was originally built. This is what has happened in Ireland where property has dropped by 50% and is falling still.

In the U.K. we need to think about the fact that the total indebtedness of our island state and its population is approaching £10 trillion. Most of this is secured against property. The true value of that property is about one third of what we think. About £3 trillion. The other £7 trillion we have, over the coming years, to repay out of real earnings. In other words we have the earn real money to fill the whole left by the evaporation of the money we thought our inflated assets represented, but which, actually never existed.

This is why the Sun and others are unwise to crow about how Ireland is in a mess because it is in the Euro. The Euro is merely the measure. The reality is the total debt, whatever the currency applied. The double reality is the inflation of property assets creating phantom wealth. We are in that position too. Only bigger.

Sarah Palin

This unconventional politician, initially regarded in Europe as a bad joke, whose ignorance of the world and naivete were literally astonishing, is emerging as a powerful icon on the American political playing field and may run for President. It is therefore time to consider her as a serious contender and assess her potential.

Circumstances and Barak Obama have brought about a profound change in America’s world position. The circumstances are economic. The Western model drove into the ditch and the U.S was in the driving seat. The scale of public and private debt across the western economies may, in some cases, be technically too big ever to be repaid. The money is all in Asia and Russia and Brazil. China is now the second biggest economy but it may already be the most powerful. It, not the U.S., is now calling the tune. This was evident to all those who took off their rose tinted glasses at the G.20.

Meanwhile in foreign policy Obama and Clinton have struggled to repair America’s reputation overseas and salvage  harsh reality out of dogma in the use of its military assets. Afghanistan, as set out in the previous Blog, is unravelling as a winnable project. Iran is emerging as a key player in Iraq and is hovering in the wings as a potential player in the tribal areas of Pakistan and in Afghanistan too. Indeed it may be the key to some acceptable level of stability in these areas. Relations with Russia are on a more productive footing; America needs her help with logistics for the Afghan war and Europe will freeze and the lights go out without Russia’s gas and oil.

All this means that the old values, entrenched since the end of WWII and nurtured since in the Cold War (which the U.S with simplistic boastfulness claimed to have ‘won’ when the reality was much more complex) have been shaken up. In the new values which now ordain the world order and which are, bit by little bit , falling into place, America is no longer the key player. It is a player yes, but there are now many other players. The U.S is one of these, but not the one.

This is not bad news. America is no longer the most reviled nation on earth, as it became after the worldwide sympathy heaped upon it after 9/11, recoiled at the advance of the neo-cons, under one of the worst Presidencies in U.S history. But there is a new problem brewing within its homeland. The economic privations, with their baggage train of unemployment, repossessions and despair, have created a new mood in the country where once again the questions is asked, what is America?  There are two conflicting answers. The United States is and the United States are.

It is to the latter that the bugle of Sarah Palin’s disparate band of hockey moms and neighborhood communities sounds and her banner flutters. Small government, a less powerful presidency, lower taxes, localising the power of government (for which the U.S. under its Constitution has the most advanced and sophisticated democratic system in the world). If these are to be the alternative goods offered on the Republican stall to challenge Obama’s Big State in November 2012, Sarah Palin might be the best choice. The fact that she may not know where London is exactly would not matter, because Americans are now more interested in what goes on at home and are fed up with wars overseas which never end. London would not mind either, because its focus is now to the east. The rest of the world is already focussed there.