Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Iran

Reports from Iran tell a story of an increasing crackdown by what has become a repressive and nervous regime. Its nuclear ambitions demonstrate a technological sophistication which presents a curious irony. More and more of the educated young are turning against the Ayatollah’s State, their common purpose given momentum by the communications potential of the very same technological advance. Censorship is no longer effective, as in the days of tapping landlines and closing newspapers. It is this enlightenment and growing public unrest which will in time lead to change in Iran. In other words the Iranian people alone will effect reform and bring their country in from the cold.

The more the West, egged on by Israel which is the sole author of almost all of its modern troubles and a good few of ours, bullies, berates and demands that Iran mends its way to our path, the more the regime will be bolstered and entrenched. Sanctions do not work in this situation. Witness North Korea, Cuba, Libya. The combined total of the longevity of these regimes is nearly 150 years. Sense has come to prevail with Libya, though not among certain naive U.S Senators. We also pursued an aggressive policy of sanctions against Saddam Hussein. The least said about that calamity the better.

Pakistan

Following David Cameron’s strong words on Pakistan, commentators have been reviewing its situation. This reveals ever more clearly the sheer destructive lunacy of the Bush/Blair foreign policy. It also shows that the idiotic War on Terror has actually stoked up the threat from terrorism as well as terrorist attacks.  Pakistan itself has suffered more of these terorist attacks than Afghanistan and Iraq put together apparently. This is put down to forcing Musharraf to join the War on Terror, against the inclinations and wishes of many of his countrymen and women, particularly the young and, critically, the security service. Elements of this had close links with the Taliban, successors to the Mujahidin who as the West’s allies, had forced Russia back behind its borders from Afghanistan.

The mess in Afghanistan contributes to Pakistani difficulties and adds to instability within that country which though notionally a democracy, has never been able to establish a stable and effective civilian government for any length of time. It has been subject to a string of coupes and military dictatorships. This is in sharp contrast to its arch rival, India. What is needed to resolve this is a complete NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. This will happen one day, but not yet. Pakistan will then become the lead player in determining Afghanistan’s future. In doing so it may find the key to its own. 

Meanwhile it will require strong words of expectation from us, but a helping hand as well.