Iraq and Afghanistan
News of another bomb in Baghdad with very considerable loss of life among Sunnis reveals how utterly un-normal is Iraq, still without a government more than three months after the election and with no deal among the parties in sight. An agglomeration of three tribes thrown together in a so called country after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after the first world war, first held together by the British Empire then by Saddam Hussein and his neo fascists, the unviable nature of this historic project has been made worse not better by the wild adventures of Bush and Blair.
What will eventually happen is not clear. Harmonious democracy without civil war and violence seems at present the least likely option. Ascendancy of Iran backed Shias in civil war with Syria backed Sunnis, with the Kurds breaking away to the north and fighting a border war with Turkey all seem in prospect when America goes home. The Irony is that once Iraq was an ally of the West and even after its mistake of trying to grab Kuwait, was hostile to Al Qaeda. There was a route open to stability, albeit with an unattractive dictator, as well as an opportunity to loosen his grip by bringing Iraq back to prosperity through relaxing sanctions.
The deranged foreign policy of Bush and Blair made that impossible. It has produced not only a savage war, but perpetual chaos in its aftermath and no clear potential outcome when all is said and done. There is a lesson here for those who think that Afghanistan can be fixed by the military, either its own, or ours (as part of NATO). There has been a sharp rise in casualties, both British and American, in recent days. This war is not going well. Sooner or later the facts will have to be faced.