Afghanistan
The Taliban have told the BBC (John Simpson, the world’s top foreign commentator in my view) that they are winning and will not talk to NATO. Allied troops have just suffered their worst month for casualties. Congress has blocked $4 billion of aid because of corruption among Afghan officials. Gen Patraeus hints that he may allow more agresssive rules of engagement. This may save NATO lives but it is only a matter of time before a wedding party is massacred by mistake. However you try and stack it, this whole project is not working.
Foreign occupation of Afghanistan is a non runner. The days of Empire when colonial powers were able to engulf local populations and bring them to heal without too much bloodshed have long gone. Afghanistan will wind up with whatever government tribal loyalties, war lords, the Taliban and other various and varied influences after some bloodshed settle on.
There may be a prolonged civil war with the Taliban controlling the south and the NATO trained security forces, propping up what will by then be the world’s most corrupt government, in the north. This will cause maximum civilian suffering and will be a direct outcome of our training and equipping Afghan ‘security forces’.
There never was an Afghan solution by occupation and military campaigns of whatever complexion. To the extent there is any solution possible it is economic and non-military. The risk from Al Qaeda is a complete red herring, but if it occurs, drones, counter intelligence and infiltration are the only effective measures to employ. Large scale training camps can be taken out by cruise missiles launched from submarines, but that phase of Al Qaeda’s plan has passed anyway.