Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

House Prices

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a respected think tank, predicts that house prices will start to fall again, perhaps up to 30% over the next few years, after adjusting for inflation. It argues that prices are still too expensive and must continue to adjust downwards.

Sensibly priced housing, which performs efficiently its primary task of putting a roof over the population’s head, is a critical component of a restructured  economy which can make things competitively and provide quality services which people can afford. So long as houses are regarded as an inflatable asset, like a party balloon, there will be no sustained, or sustainable, recovery.

NIESR’s apparently gloomy prediction is, in fact, good news.

Junior Partner

There have been raised eyebrows over Cameron’s declaration that we are the junior partner to the U.S. and he leads a delegation to India with ‘humility’. This Blog supports the PM’s approach.

One of the primary reasons that for so long our foreign policy has been little more than ceremonial is because of our unwillingness to recognise that we are a power, not a superpower. The craven need to be up there with America, however daft the project, has prevented us being realistic about who and what we are, with the result that we punch above our weight when acting as America’s bag man, but below our weight when we are out there on our own.

Junior partners who know they are not senior are far more influential than those who suck up. Partnerships are also voluntary. We do not have to be there. America needs to know this, because it gains a good deal from our support. But when it gets confused about its objectives and the sensible way forward, we have to stop going along with them. That is why we have walked away from their misguided Senate Inquiry. We have rightly reminded these all powerful legislators that their remit ends on the Atlantic shore. If we had shown more courage and independence earlier there would not have been wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. Just think how much safer we would all be.

There is no doubt that a more assertive foreign posture, based on a modern interpretation of British interests, will ruffle feathers, especially in Israel. Pakistan will find that its inability to establish a unified consensus where all organs of their state work to the same agenda, will be begin to have a cost. The U.S. will find that its junior partner does not see eye to eye with it on all things, neither should it. India, China, Brazil, Russia and Arab states may well find they have mutual opportunities with a more independent U.K.. It will also be good for business. Those are the countries with the cash. It is an interesting footnote to the departure of Tony Hayward from CEO at BP as the alleged most unpopular man in America, that he is reported as likely to undertake a new assignment for BP in Russia.