Archive for July, 2010

Monday, July 26th, 2010

More Leaks at BP.

The briefings, leaks or whatever which have been circulating for days about Tony Hayward’s departure have done nothing for BP’s battered image. The statement by the company that no final decision has been made is ridiculous.

A most urgent review of personnel and advisers is required in the communications and public relations department. From the very beginning of the oil spill it has been a disaster area of its own. Time for change here too.

Monday, July 26th, 2010

Afghan Leaks

At one level there is a worry with this sort of thing that lives will be put at risk. At another there is a sense of annoyance that so much is kept secret when the secrecy is needed to prevent criticism and embarrassment. These revelations tell us little we did not know, more how much the authorities think we do not know.

It all underlines core principles of military occupation. This can only be achieved successfully by foreign forces if the vast majority of the population supports an effective government at whose consent a foreign force is present, or if the country has first been conquered. This is what happened when the North occupied the South after the Civil War, when the Allies occupied Germany in 1945 and when America occupied Japan the same year. It did not happen in Vietnam.

The adventure in Afghanistan is doomed because the government is corrupt and incompetent with little authority beyond its fortified compound in Kabul, while large sections of the population have either joined the Taliban, support them or go along with them. In many aspects of government they are less corrupt and more efficient. Most important they are Afghan. The so called security forces presently being trained will be required, when NATO finally goes, to fight not a foreign invader, but there own countrymen. This will never work, the more so because there is a long tradition in Afghanistan of militias switching sides. Karzai’s army will be seen as an instrument of oppression and his illiterate police force will probably be used as one. Meanwhile Bin Laden  and Al Qaeda continue to operate wherever they choose.

The most useful thing about these leaks may be the fact that the supporters of the war will be universally exposed for their lack of judgement and will therfore be bound, as a condition of continued political survival, to get real.

Sunday, July 25th, 2010

North Korea

This unstable, impoverished and reclusive country, having deliberately sunk a South Korean warship with considerable loss of life, has now issued, in the face of modest military exercises in the Sea of Japan designed to remind it not to be irresponsible, wild threats to start a war and use its nuclear ‘deterrent’.

Washington has been dismissive. When faced with similar threats President Clinton told them any such lunacy would ‘mean the end of their country’. Indeed this is so. North Korea would be obliterated in a nuclear counterstrike within minutes of pressing the button. China has no doubt whispered this in Pyongyang’s ear. Its own patience is fast running out.

Sunday, July 25th, 2010

America in the Round

America has overdone things over B.P. and Lockerbie, whatever its anger at events in the Gulf of Mexico or over the bombing of the Pan Am flight. Americans see themselves as innocent in both disasters, but the rest of the world does not see so clear cut a picture. On top of this, the Afghan war is going badly, the Karzai government is both corrupt and dysfunctional and all of NATO now seeks a way out. Iraq is unstable and may yet erupt when the U.S. leaves.

On the other side of the coin the U.S has re-capitalised its banks, stabilised its financial system and passed the greatest reforming legislation of the banking sector since the great depression. Goldman Sachs has been charged with fraud and paid a spectacular fine, before announcing profits down by over 80%. President Obama has made it clear that the U.S can no longer borrow to buy cheap overseas goods from Asia until crippled by debt, so that emerging economies end up with all the cash.

Europe meanwhile has settled for announcing that almost all its banks have passed quite meaningless stress tests which are so feeble that they do not allow for a major economic downturn or a national default, let alone both. The Eurozone has staganated, weighed down by excessive sovereign debt and a banking system in which nobody has complete confidence. Without German exports Eurozone figures would look a lot worse. Without  a Federal policy or executive to manage the economies of those in, what is in effect, a federal currency, nobody knows what is coming round the corner, or what to do when it hoves into view.

Although The U.S was the epicentre of the great financial collapse, it has been timely and resolute in setting its house in order. There is some divergence with Europe over fiscal policy, but it is way ahead at creating a sound financial base. The U.K has a foot in both camps but we are outside the Euro. This is a blessing. Osborne and Cable need to sort out the banks now, so as to build on the excellent new economic mangement role of the Bank of England announced in the Budget.

Meanwhile this all shows that in the huge U.S. economy, which is made up of the varying economies of fifty states, there is sufficient federal authority and national will to act when crisis demands. This was Lincoln’s vision. America was one nation, not a multitude. He resolved the issue by war. Europe has had all the wars already. It now has to rise to the challenge of what the Eurozone is and and how and by what authority it will be led. It may find it has more to learn  from America than it is fashionable to admit.

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

Senate Inquiry

Scottish Ministers and officials have refused to appear before the U.S. Senate inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the release of the Lockerbie bomber. This is the right. The decision to release Al Magrahi, whether you like it or not and whether it was lobbied for or not, was taken by Scotland, under its own law, within its own jurisdiction about a convict serving a sentence in that country for a crime committed in its airspace and on its land beneath.

Whatever the feelings of the American Government, Congress, or people, however outraged they are and however righteously these feelings are held, the plain fact of the matter is their nation, which is still recognised as the most powerful in the world, has no jurisdiction whatsoever in these islands. Once they too were part of us, but they took up arms and kicked us out. So that is that.

Of course we are friends and, yes, there is the Special Relationship and we know how they are hurting and we want to be kind and help. But as they very well know, there are lines in the sand, perhaps none greater than due respect for national sovereignty. This is why we did not summon George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfeld to appear before the Chilcot Inquiry into the Iraq war.

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

Growth Figures

These are better than expected and better still because they show almost all the growth coming from the private sector. Osborne is pleased because it underscores the view that cutting now is essential, a cry being taken up all over Europe, though not in the U.S. so far. He points out that with growth coming from the private sector, this will take up the slack from the public sector cuts.

It may not be quite as simple as that. Manufacturing and construction did well but most of the growth is from the service sector. If, through cuts, people in the public sector see incomes shrink or lose their jobs, they will spend less in the service sector. If fewer shools are built, construction will be hit.  We have to cut, but we are not yet through the deep dark wood.  Maybe, though, we can pause and enjoy this sunny clearing on the way.

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Warning Signs

Nick Clegg’s appearance at PMQ’s will not be judged a success and he has been made a figure of fun by political commentators and the media generally. Maybe he was not as well briefed as his boss or maybe he departed from his brief. Essentially he said what he thought rather than what was so, or what he wanted to happen, rather than what had or was going to happen. He wore the cloak of the Lib Dem leader, not of the Deputy Prime Minister. All is not lost. It was his candid openness in the TV debates that put him and his party on the map (if not crosses on ballots). People may remember when he spoke of ‘savage cuts’ at his party conference there was an outcry, yet events have proved him right.

Everyone who has listened to or read the evidence given thus far to the Iraq inquiry can work out for themselves that it is even now clear that the war could only be judged legal, by the most fluid interpretation of what international law is supposed to be. Everybody knows that it is wrong to invade a sovereign country unless directly threatened by it and it is clear now beyond doubt that no such threat existed. Like savage cuts, the term illegal war was at worst premature, but to say it at the dispatch box on such an occasion was politically flat footed.

This raises a concern. The Treasury team, led by Osborne, is performing way ahead of expectation, but other departments fare less well. Eduction has dropped many clangers and its policies leave many unconvinced. There is some ambiguity in the so called Afghan strategy, with different ministers saying different things about troop withdrawals and both BP and the Lockerbie issue were allowed to get out of control before an attempt was made to rein them in. Where it not for the fact that Labour is engaged in an awkward leadership contest with rather weak candidates (without Blair and Brown and Prescott the orchestra’s tune, though more harmonious, lacks rhythm and power), the government would be having a hard time.

Cameron needs to get a grip and have a frank and comradely talk with several of his colleagues. Some of the older ones will recall that after Margaret Thatcher trounced Michael Foot and Labour, as well as the much heralded Alliance between the SDP and the Liberals, to give her a near landslide, one slip up after another followed. These came to to be known as banana skins in the media. The Iron Lady then appointed William Whitelaw to act as head prefect with some kind of co-ordiating function, but he was quickly dubbed Minister for Banana Skins. He was effective in his mission and remained an essential pillar of the Tory leadership thereafter. Most people thought these mishaps only happened because two of the defeated party leaders had resigned and one had gone sick, leaving the opposition without a powerful voice.

Time to sharpen up the Coalition act. Otherwise when Parliament reassembles in the autumn the new Labour leader will have been dealt a very easy hand to play.

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

Scottish Sovereignty

Americans clearly have a problem with this, which is odd, because they have States with their own soverign laws, within their federal system. When interviewd on the Today programme the Scottish First Minister, Alex Salmond, was impressive, separating with clarity, BP, the Prisoner Exchange Agreement and the decision to release Al Magrahy on compassionate grounds. He pointed up the murky relationship between the exchange agreement and the BP contact, whilst detaching the  Scottish government’s decision to release the prisoner. He also made the point that whilst the majority of the American victim families were against release, the majority of British were in favour.

The reason that so many here who have studied the case, including such giants of fair play and compassion as Tam Dalziel who conducted his own extensive enquiry and was convinced of Al Magrahy’s innocence, are unhappy with the original conviction is that in a fair and open trial by jury, based on all the actual rather than contrived evidence, there is little, if any, chance that this conviction would have happened.

It is probably impossible with a crime organised by a State or States, with central planning and organisation, to convict a single individual operating under orders, unless it can be proved that he was instrumental and decisive in the event. A state crime does not lend itself to individual responsibility unless those on trial had political power to direct it.

There is no doubt that there were dividends for the UK  from this decision right across the Arab world, which could be enormously helpful in resolving the never ending problem of the Middle East. By identifying the  government so closely with the American anger with its lack of mercy (mercy is spontaneous, it is not by its nature tit for tat) Cameron has blown a good deal of this advantage. Yet another foreign policy failure. If anybody is looking for cuts they can go to the FO. We do not need so fancy an echo of Empire when in reality our man is no more than, in effect, a junior minister in the State Department.

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

The Barak and David Show.

Nobody can deny the ease and candour which Cameron shows when at the high tables of the world and yesterday the press conference in the White House underscored this. Regardless of the Special Relationship, the Prime minister has established a good rapport with the President, which is nevertheless based on a businesslike engagement and not some folksy camaraderie. I profoundly disagree with and actively oppose their views on the release of the Lockerbie bomber, Afghanistan and Iran and I think they show consummate weakness in their inability to drive a settlement in the Middle East which gives justice and security to both Israel and the Palestinians. Nevertheless the two closest allies in the world today demonstrated a coherence of thought based on their view of what is doable across the world, which in times past would have been not only impressive but irresistible. Yet something is missing.

The missing component is the attention of the rest of the world. What Britain and America together think still counts, but nothing like as much as it did. There is this underlying feeling of waning power. The meltdown of the two countries’ economic structures, the calamitous invasion of Iraq, the doomed mission in Afghanistan, the vast debt mountain all contribute to this. Even the awesome military power, balanced too much to projection rather than defence on the doctrine that it is right to invade others to protect the homeland, is hopelessly out of step with the way people now view international responsibilities. All these things have contributed to a growing acceptance across the world in which China, India, Brazil and a brooding Russia are the new dawn.

America will not be able, because of its heritage and philosophy, one could say baggage, to march towards the rising sun and will favour basking in the self righteous glow of the old but fading day. We can move forward. We have done so before. We can do it again. To start, we need our own foreign policy based on the inclusive British values of the twenty first century. I am beginning to fear Hague may be as big a disappointment as Foreign Secretary as he was as Tory Leader. He is the best performer in the House of Commons and a very good biographer, but much more is called for now.

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

The Times and Lockerbie

The Times makes a very good point in its Leader today that the prospects of Ministers of the Crown being hauled before the Senate Inquiry into BP’s potential involvement in the Lockerbie bomber’s release is unwelcome. It points out  that the Senate needs to remember that these are Ministers of a sovereign country, not a vassal state. It is absolutely critical to assert our  sovereignty in this whole affair. It is indeed true that the majority of the victims were American and it was an an American owned plane. However the crime occurred in British Airspace above Scotland with its own legal sovereignty and therefore outside U.S. jurisdiction in all respects.

Can anyone imagine what the response would be if a Commons Select Committee summoned members of the U.S. Government to sit before it for interrogation? This has got to stop. America may be angry with reason, but it has nevertheless to behave. I disagree with the Times’s verdict, as do many of the victims’ families, that it was wrong to release Al Magrahi. To detain him required that the evidence of his involvement in the bombing was both extensive and compelling.

It was none of these things. Indeed some are of the view that it was fabricated. The story behind the story is that if he had not been released, his Appeal would have revealed evidence which would have led to his conviction being quashed. The embarrassment of those disclosures and who was responsible for setting him up as a totem of guilt to which understandable anger and hate could be channelled, is, if there is one, the hidden reason why he was allowed home. The dropping of his Appeal and the suppression of the evidence to go before it was a surprising condition. That is the story the Times needs to look at.

To honour the memory of the loved ones who perished, truth and justice must prevail. So far this has not happened. America needs to see this. So does the Times. It may be best for the British Government to set up a Chilcot style enquiry to get at the real truth. Many of the victim families would applaud that.