Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Counting the Cost

Already there are recriminations over the blanket nature and length of the flight ban over the UK and EU. Part of the trouble is the rule requiring airlines to pay hotel and other costs of stranded passengers. This regulation was established to deal with the practice of over booking. It was never supposed that an event such as a volcanic eruption could ground flights everywhere indefinitely. The cost of compensation to the airlines becomes punitive and out of all proportion to the revenue from the seat sold. This must be dealt with.

As I have said before and now repeat, we also need to deal with this high handed zero risk culture. Safety is not a licence for abdication. You cannot just treat people this way. Not long ago in my local town some wag left an empty carton containing a radio activity hazard sign on the steps of the police station. It was obvious to all but a bufoon that it was entirely harmless, yet the entire area was sealed off and dozens of shoppers, many elderly were held captive in a nearby supermarket for over four hours. The plaintive excuse from the spineless authorities was that public safety came first. This is rubbish. What comes first is common sense, sound judgement and a wise plan. Fortunately none of these people were alive in the war. Had they been in charge we would have lost it for sure.

It is time for a mass cull of these authorities and jobs. Send them all off to build high speed railways and eco energy projects. Give them a purpose in their lives and give us back our own.

Things Turn Nasty

It is not just the political establishment which has been turned on its collective head by the dramatic emergence of the Lib Dems as  real contenders  in the election. So strong is the surge thus far that if it advances further the Lib Dems will become the front runners. If not they already ensure that neither Cameron or Brown can win outright.

The Tory press is now outraged, perhaps even panicked. Thirteen years of nil influence was about to end giving them the ear of government. Suddenly they are staring at more years out in the cold. The Murdoch press are looking like they backed the wrong horse. This is bad for image. It looks like bad judgement. If they are wrong on this, what else?

So they have gone personal. Get Clegg. Rake up old bank accounts, speeches, jobs and friends. Find something to dull the shine. To treat his policies and his personality in this way is to accept that he may be in contention to win outright. It is only fair that he should be tested, but the testing must be fair. If it is not the public, who have turned against established power of all sorts, whether politicians, bankers or media bullies will take up the challenge and make sure he does. To my friends in the press I have a message. Be very careful. You play with fire.

Financial Education

I have just learned that a casualty of the so called wash up process in the last days of the now dissolved Parliament was the provision to provide financial education to children. One would find it difficult to identify a more pressing educational need in a country, the public finances of which are at their most indebted in peacetime history and whose population has the greatest level of personal debt of any in Europe.

That this important element of practical education fell victim of inter-party horse trading is a cause for dismay. A petition has been organised for presentation to the incoming Prime Minister.

It can be found at www.financialeducationpetition.com. I have signed it. Maybe you feel it is worth signing too. Anything that helps the rising generation manage its money and challenge the misinformation which daily pours out of the financial services industry must be good for raising the integrity of the financial system at every level. Knowledge is power.

Flying Again

Now the planes are once again in the air, questions are being asked about whether they should have been grounded in the first place. I am not qualified to comment on the science. I do know that there was little experince of this type of ash cloud, but there was some. In the end test flights by the airlines and discussions with engine makers led to a re-assessment.

What this does reveal is the absolute impracticality of a health and safety regime in any walk of life or human activity predicated on the principle of zero risk. The authorities stoutly declared that they had ‘a zero tolerance of ash’. This is as barmy as a zero tolerance of rain. If these blanket organisations are to exist (I am not convinced they should) rather than the individual judgement of those engaged in whatever it is, a rational basis of assessing risk and measuring acceptability is a pre-requisite. As greater global interdependence develops, with events and responses having ever wider effect, a more measured approach is demanded. Sitting at a desk and taking the easy route to a nights sleep, while that decision leaves hundreds of thousands stranded in deprivation and difficulty across the world will not any longer do.

We need to know that there is no such thing as absolute safety in anything beyond sitting at home in a chair, nor is zero tolerence a phrase with coherent meaning about anything in a real world.

Political Earthquakes

These are rare in the UK but they happen. They are not to be confused with upsets (Heath 1970) or landslides (Blair 1997). There have been two in the last 104 years.

The first one to look at, the better known today, is 1945. The country and the world expected Churchill to win. The people wanted real change and although grateful to Churchill for their salvation, turned to the Socialist programme of Labour. Attlee won 239 new seats. The other, was in 1906. Then the Liberals won 216 new seats, ousting the Conservatives. Even the Prime Minister lost his seat. These were both titanic gains of seats and changed the whole political map. They had an interesting common factor. In 1906 the Liberals had not had a majority in the House of Commons since 1880. In 1945 Labour had never had a majority before. Both times the electorate turned away en masse from the established pattern.

So could Nick Clegg become Prime Minister? The answer is Yes, in politics anything is possible. It is also a fact that dreams turn to dust more easily than in any other occupation. Nevertheless, if Nick Clegg did win over 200 new seats and no poll is anywhere near suggesting this, although he would not have a majority, his would be the biggest party. The Queen would send for him and he would form a coalition government. It would be interesting to see whether this was a grand coalition or one with just one other party. To get an outright majority the Lib Dems would need just on 44% of the vote. Way out of their reach? Almost certainly. Yet according to YouGov they have gone up 16 points in the last six days to lead the Tories by 3 points at 34%. If those predictions are real and sustained and go on growing anything can happen.

Will the Bubble Burst?

No I do not think it will. I know that Labour, the Tories and a good few partisan newspapers and commentators hope it will, but not this time. This is not 1983.

Then I was very active in politics as a founder memeber of the SDP, its constituency Chairman, first for the City of London and during the actual campaign, of  Folkestone & Hythe (Michael Howard). The SDP was part of the Alliance, which was a working partnership with the Liberals, which arbitarily shared out the contituencies to one or the other. Both the City of London and F&H went to the Liberals, so I helped out in Dover, where I ran every public meeting for the SDP Candidate.

I saw the 1983 General election from the inside and it was clear from the start that, brave and exciting though the Alliance  certainly was,  it could not possibly work. It was made up of two parties, one new, one old, the main inspiration of the new one being the leftward drift of the Labour party, whilst the old one was driven by the rightward drift of the Conservative party. Moreover the Liberal half remained with the traditional constituency organisation, while the SDP was organised into so called Area Parties grouping three constituencies together, an impractical arrangement which did not work. There was no proper political infrastructure, few councillors and a handful of MP’s.

Moreover the dynamics were completely different. The centre had moved to the right and the right was led by Margaret Thatcher. She had put the economy on the road to recovery and spectacularly won an heroic war to take back the Falklands. The greengrocer’s daughter from Grantham was a fierey dragon who offered a new opportunity for advancement to the aspirational working class, who defected to her in large numbers. Meanwhile the left was split between three parties, Labour led by Michael Foot, far to the left, the Liberals who always won by-elections from the Tories and lost them at general elections and the SDP run by the Gang of Four, who saw themselves as great political reformers, but were seen by voters as  has beens. The Tories were focused, inspired and single minded. Labour had vered so far to the left they were off the road and the Alliance was muddled, though well meaning. The result, a Thatcher landslide. Actually she won 58 new seats pushing her majority up to 144. This was Thatcher’s high water mark. In two general elections she won 120 new seats giving her a majority only six short of 150. If Cameron won that number in one go now he would have a majority of 4.

Things are very different now. First there is the sheer scale of the Tory gains required to win. Second the majority of the voters want change, real change. Third, Labour is united and focused. Fourth the Lib Dems, born out of the Alliance partnership, but made up of a much more coherent, cleverer and sophisticated leadership, with 62 MPs already and a significant political infrastructure right across the country, can win seats both from the Tories and Labour. They are led not by a gang but by a very bright multi-lingual more middle class edition of Cameron called Clegg, aided by the universal first choice for Chancellor, Vince Cable. They offer real change. The tide is starting to flow their way. Tides are not bubbles and they do not burst. The Tories find themselves having to row against this in a vessel not designed for the purpose. It will be hard going. If the tide does not ebb before polling day, the risk of shipwreck is real.

Tory Agony

The Tory party is in a place that nobody within its leadership expected to be. If the Lib Dem surge sustains and it most likely will, Cameron cannot win outright and may end up excluded from Government altogether. A fourth defeat in a row. How has this happened? For it is so little time ago that Cameron was regarded as a sort of Prime Minister Elect. It was all a foregone conclusion. Yet this Blog saw the disaster coming and tried to warn.

Let us look at what the Conservative party is supposed to be. It is the party of the Right of Centre. It believes in sound money, stong financial institutions, fiscal discipline, private enterprise and individual initiative, small government, low tax and a very tight rein on public spending. It believes in getting a big bang for every buck spent. It is also socially inclusive and has a social conscience to support the disadvantaged that matches the best of the Left, but it shies away from social engineering, redistributive taxation and positive discrimination which create their own ridiculous anomalies and inequalities. In the current financial crisis it was to offer tough measures which would hurt, an age of austerity was mentioned, but in return it would restore the national financial heath quicker with a better model based on low debt, high saving and a regeneration of British manufacturing. Institutionally it demands police who reduce crime, armed forces which are effective, a health service which delivers good healthcare everywhere and schools which can educate to a high standard wherever you live. The country was ready. Stick with this and victory was certain.

What did we get? Slip ups and prangs as a prelude to controversial tax cuts (at least as many voters are against the NI cut as for it and most of those for it would have voted Tory anyway) followed by an invitation to join the government of the country to create a big society, which is meaningless, opportunities to make co-operatives out of welfare services and set up your own school. Meanwhile the financial programme is opaque and has ducked the Big Questions and is wide open to attack from everyone. All this might not have mattered but for one thing. A new kid on the block. Nobody thought of this.

Labour has a clear message. Stay with us to see you through. The Lib Dems have a message. Time for real, fundamental change and an end to ping-pong politics. The Tories no longer have a message. It is lost in a pile of focus group reports,  Ashcroft cheques and empowerment initiatives. If they shout change too loud voters will nod enthusiastically and turn to Clegg. Cameron is left issuing desperate pleas from his garden. Fortunately in politics anything can happen, so it is not over yet. If the Tories make it it will be an undeserved miracle. Theirs is quite the worst Tory election campaign of my entire lifetime. My political memory goes back to 1945.

Ash Cloud

Over the last 100 years there have been very few great climatic events sufficient to disrupt travel and nothing on the scale of the present closing of north European air space. Yet in the history of the world, such events are common. Having gone through a quiet period, we can expect more are on the way.

This will bring us up short on how vulnerable to disruption modern mechanical technology is to environment. No doubt a world-wide computer crash is out there to reveal the weaknesses of  total dependence on electronics. In the midst of it all will come the requirement to have a more measured judgement of acceptable risk. With the current hysterical approach to health and safety much of civilised life and survivability is at risk. We can cope in the short term but a  ban  air travel lasting weeks or months until this Icelandic volcano simmers down, which could take two years, would lead to a double dip recession for sure.

A useful wake up call. We will have to get real.

Lib Dem Surge

Regular readers will know this Blog predicted a Lib Dem surge more than once. Sometimes it was illustrated with a comparison with the Prussians charging fresh out of the woods at Waterloo, when Wellington and Napoleon had fought each other to a near standstill.

Well the Lib Dems have certainly charged out of the wood and changed the whole dynamics of the election. If they hold their position or advance it, the Tories will not even be the largest Party. I have warned repeatedly against this empowerment rubbish owning your own welfare services and running your own schools. People want change. They do not want to take over. On the one hand Labour offers steady as we go, but if you want a fresh approach Nick Clegg and Vince Cable now offer a convincing opportunity. Suddenly the election has come alive.

Nuclear Deterrent

One of the biggest policy blunders made in the past was the cancellation of Blue Streak, the U.K  Military Rocket project. Cancelled because of vulnerability to a pre-emptive strike and soaring costs, the technology became part of the European Space effort and the prototype for Stage I of the Arianne missile launcher for Euro space projects. The French went on to develop viable rockets and their own submarine based deterrent. We bought from the Americans and left the space race. Now we have the American Trident in British Submarines. These are due for upgrade. The Lib Dems have rightly raised the issue of replacement. Cameron has become incoherent, talking of threats from China. 

I agree strongly with the need to maintain a British deterrent. But I think Trident is no longer the right one. This is a cold war weapons system, designed to wipe out Moscow and possibly other key Soviet cities. It assumed we were always going to be on the same path as the U.S, although, unlike Polaris which had to be guided to its target by U.S Strategic Air Command, Trident can be independently targeted and flown by the U.K on its own. Put graphically the U.K could nuke New York, although would not live to see the end of the day.

The problem with this whole concept for us is that it postulates our country as a mini super-power in the shadow of the U.S, when the future requires a more independent UK operating as a super medium power. We must maintain a nuclear deterrent but it needs to be smaller more mobile and less devastating. The notion that Russia, China or America for that matter are going to rain down hundreds of missiles on each other and us is now unreal. If it is not, our deterrent will make no difference anyway. We are toast whichever way you look at it. But in the modern world old style ‘blocks’ which lived in opposition to and independently of, each other have gone for good. Everyone is connected and interdependent. We have learned this in the global crash. Mass nuclear strikes are now off the menu because of the rise of interdependent self interest.

Put simply what we need is perhaps more but smaller submarines scattered more widely accross the world, with maybe two to four missiles each with one warhead. What we are seeking to deter is a threat form what is now called a rogue state or a terrorist organisation. Deterrence will come with the ability to achieve a surgical strike on a Hiroshima scale, not a total continental fry up. This is where the Lib Dems are on the right track. They have opened up a useful debate. They know they have many allies in the Military. We already have subs which can fire cruise missiles. Putting an atom bomb in the warhead of some of them  might be a simple solution and provide significantly greater flexibility.