Political Earthquakes
These are rare in the UK but they happen. They are not to be confused with upsets (Heath 1970) or landslides (Blair 1997). There have been two in the last 104 years.
The first one to look at, the better known today, is 1945. The country and the world expected Churchill to win. The people wanted real change and although grateful to Churchill for their salvation, turned to the Socialist programme of Labour. Attlee won 239 new seats. The other, was in 1906. Then the Liberals won 216 new seats, ousting the Conservatives. Even the Prime Minister lost his seat. These were both titanic gains of seats and changed the whole political map. They had an interesting common factor. In 1906 the Liberals had not had a majority in the House of Commons since 1880. In 1945 Labour had never had a majority before. Both times the electorate turned away en masse from the established pattern.
So could Nick Clegg become Prime Minister? The answer is Yes, in politics anything is possible. It is also a fact that dreams turn to dust more easily than in any other occupation. Nevertheless, if Nick Clegg did win over 200 new seats and no poll is anywhere near suggesting this, although he would not have a majority, his would be the biggest party. The Queen would send for him and he would form a coalition government. It would be interesting to see whether this was a grand coalition or one with just one other party. To get an outright majority the Lib Dems would need just on 44% of the vote. Way out of their reach? Almost certainly. Yet according to YouGov they have gone up 16 points in the last six days to lead the Tories by 3 points at 34%. If those predictions are real and sustained and go on growing anything can happen.
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