Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Tory Agony

The Tory party is in a place that nobody within its leadership expected to be. If the Lib Dem surge sustains and it most likely will, Cameron cannot win outright and may end up excluded from Government altogether. A fourth defeat in a row. How has this happened? For it is so little time ago that Cameron was regarded as a sort of Prime Minister Elect. It was all a foregone conclusion. Yet this Blog saw the disaster coming and tried to warn.

Let us look at what the Conservative party is supposed to be. It is the party of the Right of Centre. It believes in sound money, stong financial institutions, fiscal discipline, private enterprise and individual initiative, small government, low tax and a very tight rein on public spending. It believes in getting a big bang for every buck spent. It is also socially inclusive and has a social conscience to support the disadvantaged that matches the best of the Left, but it shies away from social engineering, redistributive taxation and positive discrimination which create their own ridiculous anomalies and inequalities. In the current financial crisis it was to offer tough measures which would hurt, an age of austerity was mentioned, but in return it would restore the national financial heath quicker with a better model based on low debt, high saving and a regeneration of British manufacturing. Institutionally it demands police who reduce crime, armed forces which are effective, a health service which delivers good healthcare everywhere and schools which can educate to a high standard wherever you live. The country was ready. Stick with this and victory was certain.

What did we get? Slip ups and prangs as a prelude to controversial tax cuts (at least as many voters are against the NI cut as for it and most of those for it would have voted Tory anyway) followed by an invitation to join the government of the country to create a big society, which is meaningless, opportunities to make co-operatives out of welfare services and set up your own school. Meanwhile the financial programme is opaque and has ducked the Big Questions and is wide open to attack from everyone. All this might not have mattered but for one thing. A new kid on the block. Nobody thought of this.

Labour has a clear message. Stay with us to see you through. The Lib Dems have a message. Time for real, fundamental change and an end to ping-pong politics. The Tories no longer have a message. It is lost in a pile of focus group reports,  Ashcroft cheques and empowerment initiatives. If they shout change too loud voters will nod enthusiastically and turn to Clegg. Cameron is left issuing desperate pleas from his garden. Fortunately in politics anything can happen, so it is not over yet. If the Tories make it it will be an undeserved miracle. Theirs is quite the worst Tory election campaign of my entire lifetime. My political memory goes back to 1945.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 20th, 2010 at 12:05 pm and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.