Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Nuclear Deterrent

One of the biggest policy blunders made in the past was the cancellation of Blue Streak, the U.K  Military Rocket project. Cancelled because of vulnerability to a pre-emptive strike and soaring costs, the technology became part of the European Space effort and the prototype for Stage I of the Arianne missile launcher for Euro space projects. The French went on to develop viable rockets and their own submarine based deterrent. We bought from the Americans and left the space race. Now we have the American Trident in British Submarines. These are due for upgrade. The Lib Dems have rightly raised the issue of replacement. Cameron has become incoherent, talking of threats from China. 

I agree strongly with the need to maintain a British deterrent. But I think Trident is no longer the right one. This is a cold war weapons system, designed to wipe out Moscow and possibly other key Soviet cities. It assumed we were always going to be on the same path as the U.S, although, unlike Polaris which had to be guided to its target by U.S Strategic Air Command, Trident can be independently targeted and flown by the U.K on its own. Put graphically the U.K could nuke New York, although would not live to see the end of the day.

The problem with this whole concept for us is that it postulates our country as a mini super-power in the shadow of the U.S, when the future requires a more independent UK operating as a super medium power. We must maintain a nuclear deterrent but it needs to be smaller more mobile and less devastating. The notion that Russia, China or America for that matter are going to rain down hundreds of missiles on each other and us is now unreal. If it is not, our deterrent will make no difference anyway. We are toast whichever way you look at it. But in the modern world old style ‘blocks’ which lived in opposition to and independently of, each other have gone for good. Everyone is connected and interdependent. We have learned this in the global crash. Mass nuclear strikes are now off the menu because of the rise of interdependent self interest.

Put simply what we need is perhaps more but smaller submarines scattered more widely accross the world, with maybe two to four missiles each with one warhead. What we are seeking to deter is a threat form what is now called a rogue state or a terrorist organisation. Deterrence will come with the ability to achieve a surgical strike on a Hiroshima scale, not a total continental fry up. This is where the Lib Dems are on the right track. They have opened up a useful debate. They know they have many allies in the Military. We already have subs which can fire cruise missiles. Putting an atom bomb in the warhead of some of them  might be a simple solution and provide significantly greater flexibility.

This entry was posted on Sunday, April 18th, 2010 at 1:43 pm and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.