Syria: Russia’s Challenge
February 6, 2012Sergei Lavov has a big challenge ahead of him, when he visits Damascus on Tuesday. The Russians may have been surprised by the scale of the dismay at their veto of the UN resolution. Some of this opprobrium is misplaced. UN resolutions do not end conflicts and never have. To suggest that continued fighting is all down to the veto is unrealistic. It is probably true that the Assad regime felt emboldened enough to try and end the insurrection in Homs, before the arrival of Mr Lavrov. That too will prove unrealistic because even if halted, trouble will again erupt.
Essentially the Russian and Chinese position is that regime change is not the answer. Where this has happened elsewhere as a consequence of outside pressure, especially Afghanistan and Iraq, things did not work out well. In Libya it looks better, but the difficult part of nation building lies ahead and it is not yet clear whether that will live up to expectations.
In Syria, President Assad enjoys the substantial support of his own minority tribe and appears to be opposed by a sizeable chunk of the majority Shias. Nevertheless there is no obvious successor, nor government in waiting, nor leader in the wings. The Russian challenge is to see if order can be restored and the suffering brought to an end, not by regime change but real and substantial changes to the regime and the way it governs. Assad has promised reforms repeatedly and repeatedly failed to deliver them.
Mr Lavrov will doubtless tell him that time is running out. There will now be a price for continued Russian and Chinese support. If Assad is willing to pay and actually does, Russia will have achieved a diplomatic coup. If not Syria will sink into civil war, notwithstanding resolutions, vetoes, protestations and pleas. Those who want to end the suffering of innocents will wish Mr Lavrov well; nevertheless a solution may be beyond his reach.
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