Malcolm Blair Robinson

Syria: Russia’s Efforts Fail

February 9, 2012 By Malcolm Blair-Robinson

The Assad regime appeared to have been offered a breathing space by the Russian and Chinese veto. Calling a halt to its bombardment of Homs during Sergei Lavrov’s visit, would have been a good gesture; offering something tangible to the Russians to take back would have been shrewd. Offering only feeble promises  for dialogue, promises none would expect to see kept in view of the record of the regime, whilst stepping up a cruel and indiscriminate bombardment, was foolhardy. This causes the Russians, who have had to suffer near universal criticism for the UN veto, to look impotent and without leverage with their ally. That will not please the Kremlin. In the long run that could be very bad for Assad.

Until the near humiliation of Mr. Lavrov, there remained the possibility that a modified Assad regime would represent the best practical way forward in Syria, even if not to the liking of those who seek not just change, but change of regime. With every salvo fired into the homes of the inhabitants of Homs, that prospect fades. At present the opposition to Assad lacks the strength to topple him. It may never, without foreign intervention which nobody favours, manage to acquire that strength. On the other hand Assad can blast his way onward until he gets to the place where he lacks the strength to stand alone. He will then regret the broken promises, the cruel bombardments and the slaughter of his people, because then he will find his friends are gone. Alone he will fall at the mercy of his angry people. They may have little mercy to show him.

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