Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

As it becomes obvious that economically the best option is to stay in the EU, the hard core Brxiteers or nationalists as this blog likes to call them, are more an more falling back on sovereignty as their red line. But that too is an illusion.

Because in the EU we have power over the destiny, economy and future of all Europe. As one of the three great powers of the EU we have the veto over ventures like European armies and more federalisation. Nothing of significance can happen without a yes from GB.

Moreover we can travel live and work in any of 27 countries, move capital, own property, sit on the governing councils, elect EU MPs, the list is long and good. We lose all that to become more sovereign over muddled stuff in our heads while the real world will move on without us.

Surely nobody with their wits about them wants that?

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No but she has stopped losing. Her plan is to allow her detractors to create chaotic political conditions into which she can step with the only credible plan. It is not a perfect plan, but it is a plan and it preserves the economic interests of the UK and with it the living standards of ordinary people. Parliament will definitely never allow a  hard or no deal Brexit. More important it may yet, in the end, vote through the final edition of May’s plan. Or there could be what is now called a People’s Vote. This all represents a big political shift in less than a week.

What is notable is the deflation of the Rees-Mogg led ERG. It thought it was on a roll, but it has ground to a halt as support for it ebbs. There is an underlying reason for all of this. It is now abundantly clear to absolutely everybody, that however you present it and even if niche areas benefit, the UK cannot be better off  economically outside the EU.  If you follow the money, whatever the plan,  staying in is best.

So it comes down to sovereignty. More on that later. Just for now this. If you are a single mum trying to decide between being warm and hungry or cold but fed on low quality food, sovereignty is not a big issue.

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For the moment the threat to May from the hard right nationalist wing of the Tory party has diminished but not gone away. The ERG cannot get its 48 names and May has launched a defiant campaign to appeal over the heads of her party, her cabinet and parliament, to take her message directly to the people. She is also making headway with the EU, which is itself now beginning to feel some of the pains of discord over the terms of the deal agreed. But the chances are that the Sunday summit will seal the Withdrawal Agreement and possibly improve and flesh out the political declaration. In a perverse way this is the easy bit.

What comes next is politically horrendous. The fixed term parliament act inhibits the ability of a prime minister to call an election, parliament is hopelessly split in many directions over everything, even another election, the Tory pact with the DUP has all but collapsed because their terms for its continuance can never be met, there is no majority in parliament for the May deal, but neither for any other deal. So what happens?

We do not know. May and her backers hope that it will eventually transpire that her deal is the best available in the national interest and the the hard Brexiteers, who have exerted great trouble-making power thus far, are actually just a noisy minority when things get real. Labour hopes that one way or another the government, already dysfunctional, will collapse altogether and will do all it can to bring that about. Eventually it is likely to end in another referendum or a general election. Unless a lot of people change their tune and line up behind a single objective. The chances of that, at the moment, are tantamount to nil.

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Dominic Raab, the ex-Brexit Secretary who did not know that Dover was a busy port, says that the EU ‘bullies’ us and we have no political will. What tripe. There is no political will for Brexit because he and his friends have failed to advance any kind of a plan that would not mess the lives of almost everybody outside Westminster. Moreover the 17.5 million who voted Brexit were lied to and offered a dream which was not there. And then there is the hard core of 16 plus million who voted to remain. They are furious that the future of the rising generation is being put at risk and the country is plunged into crisis because of the fantasies of a bunch of dogmatic nationalists.

There is a political will, but it is mobilised to oppose the irresponsible Brexit that Raab and others keep fantasizing about. It is gathering strength.

It is reported that five Brexiteer Cabinet Members are working to get the draft agreement changed. This is plain silly. There is no chance whatsoever that any improvements can now be made because already quite a few in the EU feel it has made too many concessions already.  Whether you love or loathe her or are pro or anti Brexit, May’s 500 page agreement, is the only plan is existence and it is too late to start again. The nationalists had their chance and blew it.

The draft Withdrawal deal has the great advantage that it protects the essential structures of economic life and the workings of key utilities and institutions offering certainty to business and ordinary families up and down the land. Of course it cannot be denied that it represents the greatest surrender of national sovereignty since the invasion of the Normans and it disenfranchises the British people from their right to vote for members of the European Parliament. It also takes away their European citizenship, something which many, like me, hold very dear. Very dear indeed.

But above all it is a failure of an entire political class of all parties, who embarked upon a course which had not been charted to a destination which was not there. It is upon them that the humiliation of reduced relevance and authority will fall, unable to influence, veto or change the rules by which much of the nation runs. It is a punishment richly deserved. It will be time to atone for all the issues left unresolved in a bulging domestic agenda. A UN Report drawing attention to shocking and unacceptable levels of poverty at the base of society, describing Universal Credit as unfair and its application misogynistic and cruel, is a good place to start.

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The answer is nobody knows. But long ago I predicted that eventually both the government and Brexit would collapse and this remains the mostly likely outcome in the end. There is no arithmetic which suggests the plan will get through parliament, nor that the government can survive the outcome. The majority in the country is now against Brexit and wants to call the whole thing off. The prospect of another referendum is becoming ever more real.

In the short term there are signs that the right wing nationalists in the Tory party have overplayed their hand and that if May is forced into a no confidence vote she will win it. It is also now a glaring fact that these hard Brexit people, strident and self righteous as they are, hate everybody else’s plans but have none of their own. Like a fawning and troublesome lecher with ED.

That last sentence is for Boris. He likes that kind of prose as we know.