Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

It is difficult to think of a bigger political disaster than to have the budget unravel within seven days; more so because the Prime Minister had weighed in and defended it. So she may have expected pretty rough handling form the Leader of the Opposition. Instead she more or less reduced him to laughing stock, silenced the benches behind him and left it to Angus Robertson, the SNP leader in the Commons, to provide the soundbite of the day. Screeching U Turn.

Yet if you are a Tory or a Lib Dem, before you laugh yourself silly, understand this. May is a politician. Corbyn is not. He has been a member of the House of Commons since, well for decades, but he has never shown a single attribute of a politician. He is a campaigner for left wing causes in which he believes, a champion of the weak, the forgotten, the poor and the underdog. He has a vision of a different sort of society which puts the collective good above personal gain and believes that the State is a friend not an enemy. That is why he has been elected Labour leader by not one landslide but by two.

If when the general election comes the stars align, as well they might, for a change of direction after years of bungling austerity, he may turn out to be just the person the voters prefer. Because having been lied to over austerity, Brexit, the single market, and all the rubbish painted on that dreadful red bus, the British public may just decide they have had a basinful of slick politicians. Then Corbyn will be a very dangerous adversary.

It was a dramatic intervention few saw coming. Sturgeon’s decision to seek permission to hold a second independence referendum is a bold political move from Britain’s top political operator. But it is not quite what it seems.

Sturgeon knows that although polls appear to be moving in favour of independence, there is still at best a 50/50 split. This is certainly a much higher starting point than last time when Yes put on about 15 points during the campaign and a repeat of that would certainly see Scotland out of the UK. But last time foundered on a weak economic plan and currency uncertainty and, although different dynamics now apply, the same problems would exist again. However the undoubted clincher for many to vote No before was that this would ensure that Scotland would remain in the EU. That turned out to be a con. So there is a very real chance that next time Sturgeon could win. But she could lose and she knows that.

The calculation is this. To declare now has put enormous political pressure on May and has changed the dynamic of Brexit. The prospect of the UK breaking up over Brexit is now real, on the table and ongoing. The news spread like a forest fire through all the EU capitals, where note will be taken that May is now fighting on two fronts.

The penny may also drop that a compromise for the EU would be to keep Scotland and drop England. It is after all England and the English who have always been reluctant Europeans. By timing the new referendum for either late 2017 or early 2018, Sturgeon knows she is in a window where she has a landslide of Scottish MPs at Westminster and with the Greens a majority in the Scottish parliament. Putting this elephant right into the room of the EU negotiations ensures maximum political influence. But if she delays she could be forced to act after the UK has left the EU, when her own political position will be much weaker, her own power base under threat and the project of Scottish independence fading in a new political climate of uncertainty.

Finally she knows that by doing it this way, Scotland is already in the EU. In spite of public declarations of a new application by an independent Scotland from spoilers in Brussels, any fool can see that it will be much easier for the EU to leave Scotland where it is than get rid of it and then get it back. Indeed because Scotland is and always has been a separate country even within the UK, it has never been a province, principality, or region of Britain, it is not impossible for Scotland to remain both in the EU and also the UK. London’s worst nightmare. But Sturgeon’s happy dream.

First came the budget shambles. Now this. Not ideal week for May certainly. And of course there is Ireland. The North voted to Remain and the South is secure in the EU.  Although Northern Ireland will still be linked to England, its land border is with the EU in the South and nearest air and sea border are both to Scotland, potentially also in the EU. The Unionists have lost their majority at Stormont and although the two Irelands may not formally unite, in practice they will operate as one economically. The future of the UK now looks more uncertain than at any time in several hundred years.

Dr. Rachael Benedict is an American historian and a best-selling author. Through the death of her estranged father she sets out to expose secrets from the Nazi era, which are so sensitive they have been subject to an extensive cover-up lasting seventy years.  This provokes a killing spree as parts of the security services of both Britain and the United States become engaged in the drama, with one side determined to get the secrets out and the other determined to keep them hidden.
Rachael battles forward to unearth the truth from intrigues of the past, but also within her own family, surviving three attempts on her life, before finally achieving her goal. Not only does she expose the truth from history and from her own roots, she has to delve deep into her own emotions to find the truth about herself.

Click on image for UK          Click here for US

Up till now the Trump Presidency has been more spectacle than politics to the average person taking a mild interest, from anywhere across the world. But now the serious business of government is at hand and soon will be in full swing. There is good news for the Travel Ban II, which seems to be regarded as reasonable by the majority and which has survived a Federal Court request, to the very judge who banned the last one, to do the same again. He refused at least until a case can be made. There is mixed news for the Obamacare replacement (Trumpcare?) because it is harassed from two sides. The liberal tendency led by the Democrats oppose it because it is retrograde and leaves millions potentially without cover, while conservative Republicans are against it because it does not go far enough to destroy the fabric of Obama’s legacy project. With that political line up the new plan is not going anywhere.

This will be a test of Trump’s much vaunted deal making skills. If he manages to navigate a healthcare system which is fairer, cheaper but still delivers cover to the millions previously, before Obamacare, without protection, he will be set fair for a full two terms. But if the plan withdraws cover from millions of lower paid blue collar workers who either have to pay more than they can afford, or go without, his Presidency will founder at the end of his first term. Because those very people voted for Trump and if they turn away he cannot win. Meanwhile a lot of political capital has been wasted on the obsession with so called fake news and the spats which result. Rasmussen,which in January had his approval rating at 59%, was yesterday showing 48%. Something must be done about that.

As the trigger moment approaches, Brexit enthusiasts, including the government or most of it, glow with optimism at the great opportunities for Great Britain set free. Remainers, like me, who cherish being part of a free Europe and have immense pride in being a European citizen, look on aghast at perhaps the greatest act of national folly in our history. But there is another group, those who voted Remain but are happy to follow the democratic choice out of the union and into, well whatever, who are beginning to dish out real issues which have to be resolved. And those issues are piling up and will not go away. The time has come to pay attention to what they are saying.

Brexiteers point out that all the warnings of economic disaster proffered by the Remain campaign, together with the forecasts of their allies, were proved wrong. But wait. Those warnings were issued in the belief that Cameron, in the event of a Leave victory, would do as promised and immediately trigger Article 50, so that by the end of June or early July we would have started on our journey out. That has not happened even now, so nothing has actually changed and therefore apart from the fall in sterling, there have been no effects. But when stuff happens, the effects will pile up. Watch this space.

It has echoes of 1939. We declared war, not much happened, no bombs fell and life carried on as normal. Then came 1940. If you do not know what happened then, best to look it up.

You have to have a Budget to gain parliamentary sanction for spending and investment for the coming financial year. So it has to happen. But it does not have to be politically dramatic, nor does it have to be re-constructional, nor does it need to be a framework  for economic remodeling.  But this Budget needed to be all three, because the work has to begin to equip this country to prosper under whatever form of Brexit we are forced by circumstances to submit. This means changing an economic model which sucks wealth from the many to the few, relies on asset inflation, and creaks under a taxation framework designed in the first half of the twentieth century, now utterly unfit for purpose. The consequences are everywhere to be seen and are felt by the majority of families all across the land.

Yet the show stopper of Hammond’s debut effort yesterday was a big hit on the self-employed. What a blunder! You cannot reform taxation by hitting at minorities bit by bit. They at once feel put upon because they are not part of the big picture. They are carrying the load for everybody. Why? Because says Phil, who has clearly lost the plot, they get the same benefits as everybody else and they should pay the same tax. Dear me. They do not get holiday pay or sick pay or maternity leave if they are small or start ups, because if they are not working no money comes in. So they have to provide all that for themselves and paying less tax helps them to do that.

This is politically peculiar for another reason. Most economists tell us that without immigration and the growth in self-employment, there would be no economic growth at all. This government is hitting both. Moreover this fragile growth is nearer stagnation than real expansion, which is why we are continuing to live in perpetual austerity. Last of all most self employed people vote Tory. But they also voted Remain. Suppose they switch, as they have before, to the Lib Dems, especially in the South and South East? There is a phrase for that in Tory HQ. Ooh err….

May is a shrewd politician. She knows that the opinion polls predict a landslide for her if she went to the country now. She also knows that opinion polls can be wrong. But the reason that she would be taking a terrific gamble (and she is not a gambler) is that an election fought now would become a second Brexit vote.

With the vagaries of the first past the post system, a coalition of outright opposition to Brexit, (the Lib Dems and SNP) and those opposed to hard Brexit (Labour), would be very likely to win a majority of Commons seats. There is, or was, a majority to leave the EU, but never to leave the single market and the customs union. Only a minority of ideologues actually want that and it is to that her government is effectively committed. May knows she won Copeland where Brexit was not really a feature, but when it was, Richmond Park, she lost fair and square a very safe seat.

Rather than a big majority, as promoted by those advising her to repeal the fixed term parliament act so as to be able to ask for a Dissolution, she could well end up without a majority relying on the likes of the Democratic Unionists or even UKIP. Or be excluded form government altogether. This Blog cannot predict that she will stay put and soldier on, but certainly speculates that she will. She is also haunted by the fate of David Cameron, who thought he was sure to win the fateful referendum.

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This week we have Phil’s first full Budget. We also have the best piece of news coming out of the Foreign Office for more than five years. Boris is off to Moscow. And at the end of the month Article 50 is triggered, putting David Davis into overdrive. These three are the big hitters who hold the fate of Theresa May’s government in their hands. So far May’s vicarage style rhetoric has carried the Tories to dizzy heights few expected. But the time for speeches is almost over. Action and indeed outcomes will now begin to drive the political climate. As we know, they speak louder than words. Boris, Phil and Dave will be in the thick of it. The rest of the government are muddlers and nonentities, failing at almost every level.

The first set piece event is the Budget on Wednesday. This blog will declare its disappointment in advance. We have a stagnating economy which would have no growth at all without immigration and PPI compensation. The whole economic model is dysfunctional, with the relationship between money supply, asset inflation and interest rates completely broken down with nobody either in charge or in control. Tinkering with tax rates will have no effect and more borrowing, even to invest, is questionable when the interest bill for the government, at very low rates, is already over £50 billion per annum. The solution, indeed the only viable option and the economically correct one, is to have a big stimulus funded by treasury quantitative easing. Until that is accepted beyond this blog, nothing much will work as planned. But the forecasts will continue and the targets will be missed.

The chances of the cautious Hammond having the courage to do this are slim. But he may surprise us. Let us hope so.

Politically it looks more at risk because of the majority in Scotland voting Remain. This has presented a strong platform for a strident Nicola Sturgeon to fight for Scotland’s interests and threaten another independence referendum if London does not listen. But whilst politics is the driver of the referendum itself, economics is the driver of how people vote in it. And the economics do not favour Scottish independence. The oil revenues are half what they were last time, which failed because of a muddled approach to the currency  and a bravado agenda for the economy that sometimes defied arithmetic.

Moreover if Scotland broke from England and the remaining UK went for hard Brexit, that would mean a customs border and tariffs on Scottish exports South, which account for twice as much trade as Scottish exports to the EU. Naval shipbuilding and refitting would also migrate south to Portsmouth. So if Scots were nervous last time, they could be more so next time, if there is one. Nothing is for certain; even the EU itself is showing political uncertainties and stresses, both inside the eurozone and outside it, which were not so obvious before. So while the rhetoric from Edinburgh will grow more shrill, the threat may actually diminish. We will have to wait and see.