It was a dramatic intervention few saw coming. Sturgeon’s decision to seek permission to hold a second independence referendum is a bold political move from Britain’s top political operator. But it is not quite what it seems.
Sturgeon knows that although polls appear to be moving in favour of independence, there is still at best a 50/50 split. This is certainly a much higher starting point than last time when Yes put on about 15 points during the campaign and a repeat of that would certainly see Scotland out of the UK. But last time foundered on a weak economic plan and currency uncertainty and, although different dynamics now apply, the same problems would exist again. However the undoubted clincher for many to vote No before was that this would ensure that Scotland would remain in the EU. That turned out to be a con. So there is a very real chance that next time Sturgeon could win. But she could lose and she knows that.
The calculation is this. To declare now has put enormous political pressure on May and has changed the dynamic of Brexit. The prospect of the UK breaking up over Brexit is now real, on the table and ongoing. The news spread like a forest fire through all the EU capitals, where note will be taken that May is now fighting on two fronts.
The penny may also drop that a compromise for the EU would be to keep Scotland and drop England. It is after all England and the English who have always been reluctant Europeans. By timing the new referendum for either late 2017 or early 2018, Sturgeon knows she is in a window where she has a landslide of Scottish MPs at Westminster and with the Greens a majority in the Scottish parliament. Putting this elephant right into the room of the EU negotiations ensures maximum political influence. But if she delays she could be forced to act after the UK has left the EU, when her own political position will be much weaker, her own power base under threat and the project of Scottish independence fading in a new political climate of uncertainty.
Finally she knows that by doing it this way, Scotland is already in the EU. In spite of public declarations of a new application by an independent Scotland from spoilers in Brussels, any fool can see that it will be much easier for the EU to leave Scotland where it is than get rid of it and then get it back. Indeed because Scotland is and always has been a separate country even within the UK, it has never been a province, principality, or region of Britain, it is not impossible for Scotland to remain both in the EU and also the UK. London’s worst nightmare. But Sturgeon’s happy dream.
First came the budget shambles. Now this. Not ideal week for May certainly. And of course there is Ireland. The North voted to Remain and the South is secure in the EU. Although Northern Ireland will still be linked to England, its land border is with the EU in the South and nearest air and sea border are both to Scotland, potentially also in the EU. The Unionists have lost their majority at Stormont and although the two Irelands may not formally unite, in practice they will operate as one economically. The future of the UK now looks more uncertain than at any time in several hundred years.