Archive for September 6th, 2016

Brexit Fog Lifts Just A Little

Tuesday, September 6th, 2016

The most significant thing to come out of both G20 and David Davis in the Commons is that we learned almost nothing about government Brexit thinking. There were three small gaps in the fog. May said no to points and declared more direct control would be applied to immigration. Davis confirmed whatever happened there would be no free movement from the EU into the UK and consequently there was next to no chance that we would remain part of the common market. May said she wanted GB to become the world’s number one free trade nation. Small gaps in the fog, but they actually reveal a big picture.

Before continuing I should remind you I voted Remain because I am from an Anglo-German family traumatized by two world wars, the scars of which have had a great impact on my own and my family’s life. So to have ended all that strife and suffering is to me perhaps the greatest political achievement in history. This political unity I have always valued over the economic union. Indeed the latter has many flaws and mitigates against many of the economic interests of this country.  I do believe in free movement, because that is the greatest guarantee of peace and harmony. So I am unhappy with the outcome of the referendum, but I am willing to make a go of the choice we have made. Because in a democracy I support the choice, even though it was not my own.

I have to accept that free movement is over, but everyone else must accept that free access on current terms to the common market is over as well. Rather than waste much effort trying to cut a deal which masks the fact we have left, which is out of reach anyway, I would end the uncertainty by trying for no deal at all. Simply trade with anyone who wants to on a tariff free basis where possible. If the EU would like to do that with us fine. If not we slap a tariff on our imports from them which will hurt them more than us because of our trade deficit with the the EU. We will work to WTO rules and gradually cut deals with willing parties. Meanwhile we need to get on with rebuilding a new post  Brexit economic model based on free trade and the re-industrialization of our country.

The only negotiations needed are about untangling the web of laws, regulations and agreements by which we are currently bound by treaty. We need to secure the status of joint business ventures like Airbus and the European Space Agency and joint academic and research projects. But no fees or restrictions on independent taxation reform. We will not be members of the EU and will be no more subject to its strictures required by membership. Administratively this is a complex and burdensome task which will keep a lot of people busy for quite a long time.

But politically it is very simple. Just get on with it.